TASI Jumps 3.4% in Its Biggest One-Day Gain in More Than a Year as Iran Talks Lift Gulf Markets; Nasdaq Rises 0.8% on Anthropic’s IPO Filing Ahead of the Fed

Takeaway: On Tuesday 27 October 2026 (Asia/Dubai), Gulf and US markets start the Fed’s meeting day on a firmer footing. On Monday TASI rose 3.43% to 9,761.78, its biggest one-day gain in more than 13 months, as scheduled talks in Tehran between Iranian leaders and officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan raised hopes of easing tensions. Qatar jumped 2.75% to 8,852.29, its best day in more than five months, and Kuwait’s All-Share gained 1.96% to 8,492.80. On Wall Street, the Dow added 0.28% to 52,361.58, the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 7,676.77 and the Nasdaq gained 0.82% to 26,169.38 as chip stocks rallied after Anthropic filed for an IPO. Brent settled 0.8% lower at $115.81. Early Tuesday, Asian shares rose strongly and US futures were little changed as the two-day Fed meeting begins.

What happened

1) US equities on Monday: the AI trade gets a lift

Monday 26 October 2026 close (CNBC; Reuters): Dow 52,361.58 (+146.42 / +0.28%), S&P 500 7,676.77 (+53.09 / +0.70%), Nasdaq Composite 26,169.38 (+214.04 / +0.82%). Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were coming off two straight weekly losses (CNBC).
Anthropic, the company behind Claude, publicly filed for a US IPO and plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker “ANT” (CNBC; Reuters). CNBC said the filing showed revenue of $16.29 billion for the six months to June; Reuters noted both rapid revenue growth and steep losses. Separately, Meta said it plans to raise up to $95 billion in equity to fund its AI expansion (Reuters; CNBC).
Chip stocks rallied: the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose nearly 3%, Nvidia gained about 2.4%, Micron about 3% and AMD 2.8% (CNBC). Tesla rose about 5% (Reuters; CNBC). Communication services lagged, with the sector ETF at its lowest since June 2025 and Verizon down about 3% after results (CNBC).
Elsewhere, Range Resources jumped after EQT agreed to buy it in an all-stock deal, JetBlue fell about 12% at midday on a report that its creditors are working with a restructuring adviser, and Instacart rose about 7% and DoorDash fell after a Wall Street Journal report of acquisition talks (CNBC). US-listed Brazilian shares tumbled after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential election; Reuters said Brazilian stocks fell about 14% and the real lost 8.5%, its biggest fall since the 1999 devaluation.

2) Yields, the Fed and gold

The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed near 4.99% on Monday, while the 2-year yield rose about 3 basis points to around 4.72% (CNBC). Early Tuesday, Reuters put the 10-year yield steady at about 4.99%.
The two-day Fed meeting starts today. The decision is due on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET (22:00 Asia/Dubai), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The CME FedWatch tool points to a more than 90% chance of a hold (CNBC), and Reuters said traders are pricing a hike in December.
Gold (COMEX front month) settled 0.78% higher at $4,022.30 an ounce on Monday, back above $4,000 (Dow Jones Market Data; Reuters). Early Tuesday, spot gold eased slightly to around $4,014 (Reuters).

3) Oil: easing on diplomacy hopes

Monday settlement (Reuters; WSJ; Dow Jones Market Data): Brent $115.81 (−$0.91 / −0.8%) and WTI $101.76 (−$1.51 / −1.46%). Even after the dip, it was Brent’s fourth-highest settlement of the year, and the contract is up about 11.9% so far in October (Dow Jones Market Data).
Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough weighed on prices, but the Houthis said they had struck pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline and Riyadh airport over the weekend; there was no immediate Saudi confirmation (Reuters). CNN reported that US forces in the region were ready to begin operations against Iran within 96 hours of an order (as cited by CNBC). The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels, its lowest since 1982 (CNBC).
Tuesday in Asia: Brent was about 0.7% lower near $114.95 (Reuters).

4) Gulf equities: Monday 26 October

TASI 9,761.78 (+323.28 / +3.43%), its first gain in six sessions and its biggest one-day rise in more than 13 months (Reuters; Arab News; Maaal). Turnover was about SAR 5.2bn (Arab News; Maaal). Ma’aden rose 7.3% and Aramco 1.7% (Reuters); flynas led gainers, up 10% at SAR 40.04 (Arab News). Reuters also reported that Aramco will start storing crude in Singapore from the second half of 2027. The parallel market Nomu rose 0.8% to 21,211.72 (Arab News; Maaal).
Qatar (QE) 8,852.29 (+236.81 / +2.75%), its best day in more than five months, with every index constituent higher (Reuters; QNA). Qatar National Bank rose 3.9% and Qatar Islamic Bank 2.4% (Reuters); turnover was about QR557m (QNA).
Kuwait All-Share 8,492.80 (+163.38 / +1.96%); the Premier Market rose 1.97% to 8,939.85 and the Main Market 1.94% to 8,463.16, with value traded of about KD83.1m (KUNA; Al-Wasat).
UAE: Dubai’s index rose 0.3% to about 5,752, led by Salik (+2.8%), and Abu Dhabi gained 0.6% to about 9,641, with Aldar up 1.5% (Reuters). Oman rose 1.1%, while Egypt’s blue-chip index fell 1.7% ahead of a parliamentary vote on providing defensive support to Saudi Arabia (Reuters).

5) Asia and futures: Tuesday morning

Asian shares rose strongly on the AI rally: South Korea’s Kospi gained around 4% in early trade, triggering a buy-side “sidecar” pause on program trading, and Japan’s Nikkei rose about 2% (Reuters; CNBC). SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SoftBank Group and Advantest were among the big gainers (CNBC). Australia’s ASX 200 slipped (CNBC).
US stock futures were little changed to slightly higher, with Dow futures up about 0.2% (CNBC).
HSBC reported third-quarter revenue of $18.6 billion, in line with estimates, and announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion (CNBC).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

Diplomacy is now the main driver in the Gulf: Saudi shares fell to their lowest close since 2021 on Sunday and then posted their best day in over a year on Monday. That swing shows how much of the recent selling was tied to the security situation rather than to company results.
Oil and Gulf stocks can move in opposite directions on the same news: hopes of de-escalation pulled crude lower while lifting regional equities. Oil is still near its highest levels since April, so any new attack could reverse both moves quickly.
The AI trade faces its real test this week: Monday’s rally came from funding headlines. Results from Alphabet and Microsoft on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday will show whether spending plans are matched by revenue.

Today’s calendar and the week ahead

Tuesday 27 October: Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS and S&P Global report before the US open; Visa, Robinhood and Seagate after the close (Benzinga; CNBC). US data include durable goods orders, consumer confidence and new home sales (CNBC). The Fed’s two-day meeting begins.
Wednesday 28 October: Fed decision at 22:00 Asia/Dubai and Chair Warsh’s press conference; Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close (CNBC).
Thursday 29 October: European Central Bank decision; US third-quarter GDP and the PCE inflation gauge; Amazon reports after the close (CNBC).
Friday 30 October: Bank of Japan decision (CNBC; Reuters).
Gulf: watch whether Monday’s rebound holds as the Tehran talks continue, and how markets react to any new attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.

Short educational angle: what is a “geopolitical risk premium”?

When traders fear that a conflict could disrupt supply, they are often willing to pay more for oil than current supply and demand alone would justify. That extra amount is usually called a risk premium. It is not a fixed number and cannot be measured directly; analysts estimate it by comparing prices with inventories, spare capacity and pre-crisis levels. Because it rests on expectations, the premium can shrink quickly when diplomacy looks more likely, as on Monday, and rebuild just as fast if attacks resume. The same headlines affect regional stocks in the other direction: lower perceived risk can lift equities even as oil eases. Understanding this helps explain why prices can move sharply on news that has not yet changed actual supply. This is educational framing only, not a forecast or a recommendation on any trade.

Sources

CNBC — Stock market today (live updates), 26 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
Reuters via Investing.com — Trading Day: AI light, Brazil flight, 26 Oct 2026. investing.com
CNBC — US Treasury yields ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, 26 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
Dow Jones via Morningstar — Comex gold settles 0.78% higher, 26 Oct 2026. morningstar.com
Reuters via Euronext — Oil settles lower on peace hopes, Saudi attacks limit losses, 26 Oct 2026. live.euronext.com
WSJ — Oil prices fall as traders weigh U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Saudi attacks, 26 Oct 2026. wsj.com
Dow Jones via Morningstar — Front-month ICE Brent settles 0.78% lower, 26 Oct 2026. morningstar.com
Reuters via Business Recorder — Gulf markets wrap, 26 Oct 2026. brecorder.com
Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi stock market rises 3.4%, 26 Oct 2026. arabnews.com
Maaal — TASI closes 3.4% higher, 26 Oct 2026. maaal.com
QNA — QSE index closes higher, 26 Oct 2026. qna.org.qa
Al-Wasat (KUNA) — Boursa Kuwait close, 26 Oct 2026. alwasat.com.kw
Reuters via Investing.com — Asian stocks surge as Anthropic IPO lifts sentiment, 27 Oct 2026. investing.com
CNBC — Stock market today (live updates), 27 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
Benzinga — Visa, Coca-Cola on deck Tuesday, 26 Oct 2026. benzinga.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.