TASI Slides 2.7% to Its Lowest Close Since 2021 as Brent Hits a Six-Month High; Dow Drops 1.2% Ahead of a Big Week for the Fed and Big Tech - Modern Money Experts

TASI Slides 2.7% to Its Lowest Close Since 2021 as Brent Hits a Six-Month High; Dow Drops 1.2% Ahead of a Big Week for the Fed and Big Tech

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TASI Slides 2.7% to Its Lowest Close Since 2021 as Brent Hits a Six-Month High; Dow Drops 1.2% Ahead of a Big Week for the Fed and Big Tech

Takeaway: On Monday 26 October 2026 (Asia/Dubai), markets open a packed week with oil just off a six-month high and Saudi shares under heavy pressure. On Friday the Dow fell 1.23% to 52,215.16, the S&P 500 lost 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.21% to 25,955.34 as selling spread beyond tech. Brent settled 3.1% higher at $116.72, its highest close since 29 April and up about 6% on the week, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued. On Sunday TASI fell 2.65% to 9,438.50, its lowest close since 2021 and its worst session in about 18 months, while Kuwait’s All-Share rose 0.47% to 8,329.42 and Qatar edged up 0.05% to 8,615.48. Early Monday, oil eased about 2% and US stock futures rose ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday and results from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon.

What happened

1) US equities on Friday: the sell-off spreads beyond tech

  • Friday 23 October 2026 close (CNBC; AP): Dow 52,215.16 (−652.82 / −1.23%), S&P 500 7,623.68 (−39.75 / −0.52%), Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34 (−53.52 / −0.21%). For the week the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.7%, while the Dow gained 0.4% (CNBC). It was the second straight weekly loss for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (CNBC).
  • Defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities and healthcare fell (CNBC). American Express dropped more than 3% after announcing it will cut about 5% of its global workforce to “prepare for AI”, even though quarterly profit rose and it raised its full-year earnings outlook (CNBC; AP; WSJ). Caterpillar fell about 2% and Goldman Sachs more than 1%, adding to the pressure on the Dow (CNBC).
  • SLB jumped about 7% after beating profit estimates and pointing to a stronger 2027 as Middle East activity recovers; its Middle East and Asia revenue rose 9% from the previous quarter to $2.81 billion (Reuters). Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips traded at all-time highs (CNBC).
  • After Thursday’s rout, some chip stocks bounced: Micron rose nearly 3% and AMD almost 2% (CNBC). Telecom shares fell on a report that SpaceX is moving closer to becoming a wireless carrier, and discount retailers Dollar Tree and Dollar General slid about 5% at midday on concerns about higher diesel costs (CNBC). The VIX volatility index rose above 20 (CNBC).

2) Data, yields, the Fed and gold

  • The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October from 58.4, still signalling strong growth, but selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022 as higher oil and freight costs fed through (S&P Global).
  • The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was 48, little changed from September and above the 46.3 consensus; one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and five-year expectations to 3.5% (CNBC).
  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points to around 5.00% on Friday, after falling below 5% on Thursday (CNBC).
  • Fed funds futures point to about a 90% chance the Fed holds rates on Wednesday (CNBC); Reuters put the chance of a hike this week below 10%, with a December hike priced at roughly 80%.
  • Gold (COMEX front month) fell 1.28% on Friday to $3,991.10 an ounce and lost 4.05% on the week, its biggest weekly drop since early June (Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar; Argaam).

3) Oil: Brent at its highest close since April

  • Friday settlement (Reuters; WSJ; CNBC): Brent $116.72 (+$3.55 / +3.14%), the highest close since 29 April; WTI $103.27 (+$3.80 / +3.8%). Brent gained 6.24% on the week (Dow Jones Market Data; WSJ).
  • The rally followed news reports that the US and Israel could be planning strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, and an oil spill reported off the UAE coast of Umm Al Quwain (Reuters; CNBC). On Sunday, Saudi air defences intercepted drones and missiles over Riyadh and the south of the kingdom (Reuters; CNBC).
  • Monday in Asia: Brent was about 2% lower near $114.50 and WTI near $101, as Qatari mediators visited Tehran on Sunday (Reuters; CNBC). The Houthis said on Monday they had attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pumping stations and Riyadh airport; there was no immediate confirmation from Riyadh (Reuters).

4) Gulf equities: Sunday 25 October

  • TASI 9,438.50 (−257.36 / −2.65%) on turnover of about SAR 4.3bn, the lowest close since 2021 (Saudi Exchange; Argaam; Arab News). Reuters said it was the index’s worst session in 18 months; it fell as much as 3.4% during the day. Argaam said the index is now down about 9.6% so far in October. Al Rajhi Bank fell 2.8% to SAR 58.10, Ma’aden 6.8% to SAR 52.10, ACWA Power 6.0% to SAR 141.00, SABIC 1.7% to SAR 43.00 and Aramco 0.9% to SAR 25.18 (Saudi Exchange; Argaam). The parallel market Nomu fell 1.79% to 21,043.74 (Arab News).
  • Kuwait All-Share 8,329.42 (+38.61 / +0.47%), ending a run of seven losing sessions (Edge Consultancy; Al-Jarida); the Premier Market rose 0.50% to 8,767.54 and the Main Market 0.28% to 8,301.92, with value traded about KD57.4m (QNA).
  • Qatar (QE) 8,615.48 (+4.38 / +0.05%), reversing early losses; 24 stocks rose, 29 fell and 1 was unchanged, with turnover of about QR312m (QNA; Reuters).
  • UAE (Friday 23 October): Dubai’s index fell 1.4% to a more-than-four-month low, with Emirates NBD down 3.5%, and Abu Dhabi fell 1.2%; the two markets lost 2.3% and 2.2% on the week (Reuters). Dubai and Abu Dhabi reopen today. Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s EGX 30 fell 3.6% on Sunday (Reuters).

5) Asia and futures: Monday morning

  • Asian markets were mixed: Japan’s Nikkei was slightly lower after losing 4.0% last week, South Korea’s Kospi slipped, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged higher (Reuters; AP; CNBC). China’s CSI 300 fell as investors watched the Communist Party’s fifth plenum (CNBC).
  • US stock futures rose: S&P 500 futures were up 0.25%, Dow futures up 155 points (+0.31%) and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.29% (CNBC).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Oil and Saudi shares are moving in opposite directions: Brent is near its highest since April, yet TASI is at its lowest close since 2021. The attacks inside the kingdom are weighing on sentiment far more than higher crude prices are helping, and selling on Sunday was broad across sectors.
  • Higher oil feeds the inflation debate: US business surveys show companies raising prices at the fastest pace since 2022 and consumers expecting higher inflation. That keeps the Fed on alert, even if markets expect it to hold this week.
  • This week is a test for the AI trade: Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report, and investors will focus on how much they plan to spend on AI and how that spending is funded.

The week ahead

  • Tuesday 27 October: Coca-Cola and Boeing before the US open; Robinhood after the close (CNBC). The two-day Fed meeting begins.
  • Wednesday 28 October: Fed decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (22:00 Asia/Dubai), followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference; Alphabet, Microsoft and Ford report after the close (CNBC; Reuters).
  • Thursday 29 October: European Central Bank decision; Caterpillar and Eli Lilly before the open; Amazon and Intel after the close (CNBC).
  • Friday 30 October: Bank of Japan decision (CNBC). Exxon Mobil and Chevron are also due to report this week (Reuters). Apple reports on Monday 2 November, and the US midterm elections are on 3 November (Reuters).
  • Gulf: Saudi, Qatari and Kuwaiti markets trade Sunday to Thursday; watch how they react to the oil moves and any news on regional mediation.

Short educational angle: what “a 90% chance of a hold” really means

When you read that markets see a 90% chance the Fed will keep rates unchanged, that number is not a forecast from the Fed or from economists. It is worked out from the prices of fed funds futures, contracts whose value depends on where the Fed’s policy rate ends up. If those prices imply an average rate very close to today’s level, the implied chance of a hold is high. These probabilities can change quickly with new data, and they are not certainties: a 10% chance of a hike still means a hike is possible. That is why many traders also watch the statement and the press conference, since guidance about the next meeting (here, December) can move markets as much as the decision itself. This is educational framing only, not a forecast or a recommendation on any trade.

Sources

  1. CNBC — Stock market today: live updates, 23 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  2. AP — Wall Street close, 23 Oct 2026. apnews.com
  3. CNBC — American Express is cutting 5% of its workforce to “prepare for AI”, 23 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  4. AP — American Express third-quarter results, 23 Oct 2026. apnews.com
  5. Reuters via Investing.com — SLB beats quarterly profit estimates, 23 Oct 2026. investing.com
  6. S&P Global — US flash PMI signals sustained strong growth, but also further inflation uplift in October, 23 Oct 2026. spglobal.com
  7. Dow Jones via Morningstar — Comex gold ends the week 4.05% lower at $3,991.10, 23 Oct 2026. morningstar.com
  8. Reuters via Investing.com — Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, oil spill, highest settlement since April, 23 Oct 2026. investing.com
  9. Dow Jones via Morningstar — Front-month ICE Brent rose 6.24% this week to settle at $116.72, 23 Oct 2026. morningstar.com
  10. WSJ — Oil prices rise as Middle East risks persist, 23 Oct 2026. wsj.com
  11. Reuters via Investing.com — Earnings flood, Fed meeting will test rickety AI market rally, Oct 2026. investing.com
  12. CNBC — Earnings this week: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and more, 25 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  13. CNBC — Stock futures climb as traders try to recover from the S&P 500’s losing week (live updates), 26 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  14. Reuters via Investing.com — Asian shares make cautious start, Brent eases from six-month high, 26 Oct 2026. investing.com
  15. AP — Asian markets and oil, Monday 26 Oct 2026. apnews.com
  16. Saudi Exchange — Detailed daily report, 25 Oct 2026. saudiexchange.sa
  17. Argaam — TASI falls 2.7% to 9,439 pts, turnover at SAR 4.3B, 25 Oct 2026. argaam.com
  18. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 9,438, 25 Oct 2026. arabnews.com
  19. Reuters via Business Recorder — Most Gulf shares close lower as Saudi-Houthi fighting rages on, 25 Oct 2026. brecorder.com
  20. QNA — Qatar Stock Exchange index closes higher, 25 Oct 2026. qna.org.qa
  21. QNA — Kuwait Bourse closes higher, 25 Oct 2026. qna.org.qa
  22. Edge Consultancy — Middle East market wrap, 25 Oct 2026. edgeconsultancykw.com
  23. Reuters via Business Recorder — UAE shares extend losses on regional conflict fears, 23 Oct 2026. brecorder.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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