MMEC Analysis — Friday 30 October 2026: SPX Sits Just Below Its Gamma Flip
Yesterday in brief
Thursday ended the S&P 500’s three-day run: the index slipped 0.30% to 7,720.39 and the Nasdaq fell 1.4% as Alphabet’s post-earnings slide weighed on communication services, while chipmakers held up — MU added +9.8bp and AVGO +6.9bp to the index, against −9.2bp from NVDA and −7.1bp from AAPL. After the bell Amazon and Intel fell, and in the Gulf TASI slipped back below 10,000. Even so, volatility stayed orderly: the platform’s climate reads “Paying”, VIX sits at 17.20 (52nd percentile), and the curve is in contango (VIX9D 15.87, VIX3M 19.37). The one sign of caution is protection demand — SPX 25-delta skew at 10.36 is in its 93rd 60-day percentile, with VVIX at 98.01.
Today’s positioning: gamma levels
That caution shows up in dealer positioning. Gamma exposure is built from open interest, so it maps out where hedging flows are likely to sit today. SPX closed at 7,720.39, just below the gamma flip at 7,729.6, with net GEX at −23.49bn. Below the flip, dealers are short gamma, so their hedging tends to amplify moves rather than damp them. The levels are tightly packed: the put wall at 7,720 sits right at spot, the call wall at 7,725 (down from 7,750 at the open) and max gamma at 7,745. On open interest alone, the larger walls remain 7,700 below and 7,750 above. A hold above 7,729.6 would move SPX back into positive-gamma territory, where moves usually calm; a break of 7,720 leaves 7,700 as the next level. SPY tells the same story: spot 764.63, net GEX −$10.60bn, flip 771, call wall 770, put wall 750, and a put/call volume ratio of 1.46.
Note: the GEX Workspace header shows +11.82bn of positive gamma (ATM IV 16.58% vs 8.6% realized). We lean on Gamma Shift’s net figure, which matches the SPY reading.
Names on watch
Options flow points to where traders are positioning. Bullish-leaning flow: COIN (+0.60, $14.5M), IREN (+0.37, $24.3M) and ASML (+0.60, $4.3M). Bearish-leaning flow: ACN (−0.81), TWLO (−0.57), MRNA (−0.55), GOOG (−0.47, $24.0M), ORCL (−0.47, $25.5M), PLTR (−0.47, $9.4M) and LITE (−0.41). SNDK ($27.3M) and AMD ($20.4M) saw heavy two-sided flow. Among reported prints, SPX led with $3.87B in premium, followed by GOOGL ($607M), QQQ ($592M), GOOG ($531M), NFLX ($416M) and NOW ($369M); the single largest was a $259M SPX 7000 call print for 20 November, traded on the bid.
Pattern match: Elite Pulse
Some of today’s unusual activity echoes the names our daily scorecard has recently reported as aligned. GOOGL, a recent aligned name, drew $9.6M of put selling after its earnings drop, and IREN showed $11M of put selling on top of its bullish Flow Watch reading. Outside that list, the strongest relative-volume readings came from VFC (put selling at 28.5× normal volume) and KHC (call buying at 28.2×, $711K), with UAL call buying of $3.3M. On implied volatility, TSLA (38.37%, IV rank 2) and NVDA (39.11%, rank 32) — both recent aligned names — are pricing modest moves relative to their own history, while SPX IV is 13.53% (rank 58).
Event calendar
Today’s data is priced for smaller moves than usual. The Employment Cost Index at 12:30 UTC (16:30 UAE) carries an implied move of 0.52% against a 0.89% historical average; Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (17:45 UAE) 0.51% vs 0.85%; and Fed speaker Musalem at 16:30 UTC (20:30 UAE) 0.51% vs 0.95%. Headline risk scores 14/100, “Calm”. With dealers short gamma near the flip, a surprise in any of these could travel further than the options market expects.
Educational content only, based on MMEC platform data and reported prints. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.