Oil Jumps 4% as AI Doubts Pull the Nasdaq Down 1.25%; Treasuries Rally After the 30-Year Auction, Qatar Falls to Its Lowest Since 2020 and TASI Drops 1.6% - Modern Money Experts

Oil Jumps 4% as AI Doubts Pull the Nasdaq Down 1.25%; Treasuries Rally After the 30-Year Auction, Qatar Falls to Its Lowest Since 2020 and TASI Drops 1.6%

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Oil Jumps 4% as AI Doubts Pull the Nasdaq Down 1.25% — Treasuries Rally After the 30-Year Auction, Qatar Falls to Its Lowest Since 2020 and TASI Drops 1.6%

Takeaway: Into Friday 9 October 2026 Asia/Dubai morning, Thursday was a day of two shocks pulling in different directions. Brent jumped 4.07% to settle at US$104.28 as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz hit a wartime high and Hurricane Isaias shut more than 60% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, while a report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue is about US$20 billion below earlier figures hit chip and AI stocks. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193.34 and the S&P 500 0.47% to 7,765.36, but the Dow edged up 0.10% and the Russell 2000 was flat as energy led and most S&P 500 stocks rose. Bonds rallied after a solid US$22 billion 30-year auction at 5.618%: the 10-year par yield fell to 5.22% and the 30-year to 5.60%, flattening the curve. Fed Governor Waller said more hikes are likely but the timing is flexible. In the Gulf, the region’s last session of the week was its weakest in months: TASI −1.57%, its biggest one-day fall since March, Qatar −2.21% to its lowest since June 2020, and Kuwait −0.40%. Saudi, Qatari and Kuwaiti markets are closed on Friday and Saturday and reopen on Sunday 11 October. This morning oil is giving back part of the gain after President Trump ruled out a strike on Iran before the US midterm elections.

What happened

1) US equities — energy up, AI down, a split market

  • Thursday 8 October 2026 close (Associated Press via WTOP / Reuters):
  • S&P 500 7,765.36 (−36.41 / −0.47%) — its second straight loss after Tuesday’s record; up 0.6% this week and 13.4% this year
  • Dow 51,231.64 (+51.77 / +0.10%) — after flipping between gains and losses through the day
  • Nasdaq 27,193.34 (−345.35 / −1.25%) — two days after its record close; up 17% this year
  • Russell 2000 2,794.13 (+0.92 / +0.03%) — still down 1.4% this week
  • The AI trigger: the Financial Times reported, and CNBC confirmed, that OpenAI told investors it reached roughly US$50 billion in annualised revenue at the end of September, below the US$68 billion figure widely reported last month; a person familiar said the higher figure included partners’ gross revenue (CNBC). Chip stocks — up more than 80% this year — fell 3.4% (Reuters). Nvidia fell about 3%, Oracle nearly 6%, CoreWeave nearly 8%, AMD and Broadcom about 4% and Intel 5% (CNBC); Micron lost 4.8% (Reuters).
  • Sectors and movers (Reuters): energy led the 11 S&P 500 sectors and technology fell the most. PepsiCo rose 3.7% after announcing more cost cuts alongside a lower profit forecast; Chipotle jumped 6.2% on reports that Starbucks is exploring a purchase; Palantir gained 2.4% after a Goldman Sachs upgrade.
  • Under the surface: the decline was narrow. The AP noted that drops in technology overshadowed gains for the majority of S&P 500 stocks; on the NYSE advancers beat decliners 1.28-to-1, while on the Nasdaq 2,050 stocks rose and 2,734 fell. Volume was 18.81 billion shares versus a 20-session average of 17.74 billion (Reuters).
  • Data: initial jobless claims slipped 2,000 to 197,000 in the week to 3 October, below the 200,000 forecast and near 57-year lows (Labor Department via Reuters).

2) Bonds and the Fed — a solid long-bond sale and a flatter curve

  • Auction: the US$22 billion 30-year reopening cleared at 5.618%, essentially in line with the 5.617% pre-auction level, up from 5.308% for the same bond on 10 September. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54 versus a 2.41 average; indirect bidders took 72.3% (average 69.1%) and primary dealers 6.8% (average 10.3%) (TreasuryDirect / investingLive). The sale closed a week of about US$119 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year supply, all at higher yields than in September (TreasuryDirect).
  • Yields: earlier in the day higher oil pushed yields up, and the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields touched 54.2 bps, the steepest since mid-August. After the auction Treasuries rallied: in afternoon trading the 10-year yield was down about 5 bps at 5.227%, a day after a 24-year high (Reuters). On the US Treasury’s daily par curve, the 2-year closed at 4.75% (−2 bps), the 10-year at 5.22% (−6 bps) and the 30-year at 5.60% (−7 bps), narrowing the 2s10s gap to about 47 bps from 51 bps.
  • Fed speakers: Governor Christopher Waller said, “If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes,” adding that “the hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings.” He said he is concerned the recent acceleration in inflation could push up consumers’ and businesses’ expectations (Reuters). St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said rates should rise over the next six to nine months (WSJ / Bloomberg Law). The policy range is 3.75%–4.00%.
  • Pricing: markets expect the Fed to hold on 27–28 October; CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at 69.2% (Reuters).

3) Oil — a war premium plus a hurricane

  • Thursday settlement: Brent (December) US$104.28 (+US$4.08 / +4.07%), its highest settlement since 28 September and its largest daily gain since 1 October (Dow Jones Market Data); WTI (November) US$91.49 (+US$3.21 / +3.6%). Both contracts were up more than US$5 at one point (Reuters).
  • Drivers (Reuters): attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — which carried about 20% of global oil and fuel before the war — reached their highest since the Iran conflict began, now in its eighth month. Hurricane Isaias, due to make landfall on Friday, led producers to shut about 1.3 million barrels per day, or 62.9%, of US Gulf of Mexico oil output (US Marine Minerals Administration via Reuters).
  • This morning: by about 02:30 GMT Brent was down 0.7% at US$103.53 and WTI down 0.7% at US$90.89 after President Trump ruled out striking Iran before the 3 November midterm elections and said Washington was holding “productive discussions” with Tehran (AFP via The Japan Times; Reuters).

4) Asia this morning

  • At about 02:30 GMT (AFP via The Japan Times): Japan’s Nikkei −0.8% at 68,512.30, with SoftBank down more than 4%; Shanghai −1.2% at 3,767.83; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1.2% at 24,059.76. Seoul and Taipei were closed for holidays. The euro traded at US$1.1222 and the dollar at 157.89 yen.

5) Gulf equities — Thursday 8 October 2026 (last session of the week)

  • TASI 10,376.28 (−165.95 / −1.57%) on value traded of about SR4.4 billion and 221 million shares, with only 15 stocks up and 249 down (SPA via Al-Rayah). Reuters said it was the index’s biggest one-day decline since March and a sixth straight weekly loss, with Saudi National Bank down 3.1%; Investing.com put the close at a six-month low. Al Rajhi, Aramco, SNB, Alinma and SABIC Agri-Nutrients were the most traded stocks by value. The parallel Nomu index fell 172.53 points to 21,612.44 (SPA). Reuters cited deadly strikes on Saudi airports as widening the conflict.
  • QE Index (Qatar) 9,005.61 (−203.92 / −2.21%) (QNA), its lowest close since the June 2020 pandemic selloff (Reuters). Value traded rose to QR347.1 million on 137.9 million shares and 23,677 trades; only 2 companies rose, 47 fell and 5 were unchanged. Market capitalisation fell to QR546.0 billion from QR558.7 billion (QNA). QNB, the Gulf’s largest lender, fell 2.9%, then reported after the close a third-quarter net profit of QR4.65 billion, up from QR4.43 billion a year earlier (Reuters). For the week the index lost 2.03%, led by banks and financial services (−2.22%) (QNA).
  • Kuwait All Share 8,632.71 (−34.79 / −0.40%) on 282.8 million shares worth KWD84.3 million across 21,111 deals (KUNA). Premier Market 9,032.36 (−0.35%); Main Market 8,860.03 (−0.66%); Main 50 10,084.29 (+0.27%). Six sectors fell, led by insurance (−4.21%), and six rose, led by technology (+2.80%). Over the week, market value fell about KWD489.5 million to KWD51.7 billion and value traded dropped 23.9% (Al-Jarida).
  • Elsewhere (Reuters): Dubai −1.7% to 5,799; Abu Dhabi −1.6% to 9,801; Bahrain −0.2% to 1,896; Oman +0.1% to 7,832.

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Higher oil did not lift Gulf stocks: Brent’s 4% jump came from supply risk — attacks on shipping and on Saudi territory — not stronger demand. When the oil price rises because the region itself is at risk, investors price the risk first, and Thursday’s breadth (15 up against 249 down in Riyadh, 2 against 47 in Doha) showed broad selling.
  • The index can hide the rotation: the Nasdaq fell 1.25% while the Dow rose and most S&P 500 stocks gained. Money moved out of AI and chip leaders while energy led the gainers. With a few giant tech names carrying so much of the index, one report about one private company was enough to move the headline numbers.
  • Oil feeds straight into the rate debate: Treasury yields first rose with crude, then fell after the auction. Fed officials keep linking the energy shock to inflation expectations, which is why next week’s CPI matters for whether a December hike stays the base case.
  • Earnings are next: QNB and Dukhan Bank opened Qatar’s third-quarter season, and a strategist quoted by Reuters noted that the US season begins next week — company results will test whether the selling was about fundamentals or nerves.

What’s ahead

  • Today, Friday 9 October: Hurricane Isaias is due to make landfall on the US Gulf Coast (Reuters); preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, including inflation expectations, at 10 a.m. ET / 6 p.m. UAE (University of Michigan release calendar).
  • Sunday 11 October: Saudi, Qatari and Kuwaiti markets reopen.
  • Wednesday 14 October: US September CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. UAE); Thursday 15 October: September PPI (BLS).
  • 27–28 October: next Fed policy decision; the following meeting is 8–9 December.

Short educational angle — headline vs core inflation: how an oil shock reaches the CPI

The consumer price index is reported two ways. Headline CPI covers the whole basket, including food and energy. Core CPI leaves out food and energy because they swing the most from month to month. An oil spike like Thursday’s reaches headline inflation quickly: petrol and other fuel prices adjust within weeks, so a jump in crude tends to show up in the next one or two headline readings. Core inflation reacts more slowly and less directly, through second-round effects — higher transport and delivery costs, airfares, and the prices of goods that use fuel or petrochemicals. Central banks usually try to “look through” the first-round effect on headline prices, because hiking rates cannot add barrels of oil. What worries them is the second round, especially if households and businesses start to expect higher inflation and set prices and wages accordingly. That is exactly the concern Governor Waller described on Thursday. So when September CPI arrives on 14 October, reading it well means checking three things: headline versus core, which components drove the change, and what the inflation-expectations surveys show. A hot headline number driven by energy alone tells a different story from a broad rise in core.

Sources

  1. Associated Press via WTOP — How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 10/8/2026. https://wtop.com/national/2026/10/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-thursday-10-8-2026/
  2. Reuters via StreetInsider — S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower as crude prices jump, chip stocks weigh (8 Oct 2026). https://www.streetinsider.com/Market+Check/S%26P+500%2C+Nasdaq+end+lower+as+crude+prices+jump%2C+chip+stocks+weigh/27163330.html
  3. CNBC — Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report (8 Oct 2026). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html
  4. Reuters via US News — US weekly jobless claims fall as layoffs remain low (8 Oct 2026). https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-08/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-as-layoffs-remain-low
  5. TreasuryDirect — Auction announcements, data and results. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/
  6. investingLive — US Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.618% (8 Oct 2026). https://investinglive.com/news/us-treasury-sells-22-billion-of-30-year-bonds-at-a-high-yield-of-5-618/
  7. Capital Finance Bureau — 30-year bond auction yield rises to 5.618% from 5.308% in September (8 Oct 2026). https://capitalfinancebureau.com/news/30-year-treasury-bond-auction-october/
  8. Reuters via KTWB — US bonds rally after 30-year auction finds solid demand (8 Oct 2026). https://ktwb.com/2026/10/08/us-bonds-fall-lifting-yields-for-2nd-day-as-oil-weighs-30-year-auction-looms/
  9. US Treasury — Daily Treasury par yield curve rates (2026). https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve
  10. Federal Reserve — Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook (8 Oct 2026). https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm
  11. Reuters via Investing.com — Fed’s Waller: More hikes needed, but there is ‘flexibility’ about the pace (8 Oct 2026). https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-waller-more-hikes-needed-but-there-is-flexibility-about-the-pace-4938165
  12. Bloomberg Law — Fed’s Musalem signals rates should rise next six-to-nine months (8 Oct 2026). https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/feds-musalem-signals-rates-should-rise-next-six-to-nine-months
  13. Reuters via Euronext — Oil rises 4% on revived Middle East worries, Hurricane Isaias supply disruption (8 Oct 2026). https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/oil-rises-4-revived-middle-east-worries-hurricane-isaias-supply-disruption
  14. Dow Jones via Morningstar — Front month ICE Brent crude rose 4.07% to settle at $104.28 (8 Oct 2026). https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610087648/front-month-ice-brent-crude-rose-407-to-settle-at-10428-data-talk
  15. AFP via The Japan Times — Asian stocks mixed amid AI concerns, oil dips after surge (9 Oct 2026). https://www.thejapantimes.jp/Economy/754534-asian-stocks-mixed-amid-ai-concerns-oil-dips-after-surge.html
  16. Reuters via Zawya — Mideast Stocks: Most Gulf bourses end lower as Hormuz attacks hit wartime peak (8 Oct 2026). https://www.zawya.com/en/capital-markets/mideast-stocks-most-gulf-bourses-end-lower-as-hormuz-attacks-hit-wartime-peak-1582742
  17. SPA via Al-Rayah — Saudi main index closes lower at 10,376 points (8 Oct 2026). https://alrayah.sa/318096/
  18. Investing.com — Saudi Arabia stocks lower at close of trade; Tadawul All Share down 1.57% (8 Oct 2026). https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/saudi-arabia-stocks-lower-at-close-of-trade-tadawul-all-share-down-157-4939058
  19. QNA via Fana News — Qatar Stock Exchange closes lower (8 Oct 2026). https://www.fananews.com/language/en/qatar-stock-exchange-closes-lower/
  20. QNA — Financial analyst to QNA: Qatar stocks trading cautiously ahead of earnings season (8 Oct 2026). https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?date=8%2F10%2F2026&id=financial-analyst-to-qna-qatar-stocks-trading-cautiously-ahead-of-earnings-season
  21. KUNA via Alwakt News — Kuwait Bourse closes lower, All Share down 34.79 points (8 Oct 2026). https://alwaktnews.com/bwrsa-alkwyt-tghlq-t-aamlat-a-al-ankhfad-mwshr-a-al-aam-34-79-nqta/
  22. Al-Jarida — Kuwait Bourse loses KWD489.5 million in a week as liquidity falls 24% (8 Oct 2026). https://www.aljarida.com/article/146850
  23. BLS — Schedule of selected releases for October 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
  24. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers — 2026 release dates. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=79628

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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