Democrats Projected to Sweep Congress as US Futures Slide; AMD Jumps After Hours and Muscat Extends Losses - Modern Money Experts

Democrats Projected to Sweep Congress as US Futures Slide; AMD Jumps After Hours and Muscat Extends Losses

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Democrats Projected to Sweep Congress as US Futures Slide; AMD Jumps After Hours and Muscat Extends Losses

Takeaway: On Wednesday 4 November 2026 (Muscat/UAE time), the US midterm result is the big story: AP called the Senate for the Democrats and NBC News and Decision Desk HQ project Democratic control of the House as well. Markets read that as a risk to the AI trade and to fiscal deal-making: by about 08:40 Muscat time E-mini S&P 500 futures were down 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 2.0%, Japan’s Nikkei had slid 4.2%, and the dollar index was at a one-month low near 101.30. That overshadowed a strong night for chips: AMD beat estimates and guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion, and the stock rose about 8% after hours. On Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq 0.83% to 25,372.01, while the Dow fell 0.38% on Apple. Brent settled 1.12% lower at $103.60. In the Gulf, TASI was flat at 9,876.13 (−0.07%), Kuwait jumped 1.00% and Qatar added 0.24%, while the Muscat MSX 30 fell 0.55% to 7,222.44, its fourth straight loss. Today brings ADP jobs, ISM services and the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding.

What happened

1) Midterms: Democrats on course to control both chambers

  • AP called the Senate for the Democrats, and NBC News projects that Democrats have also won control of the House (AP; NBC News). Decision Desk HQ projected Democratic wins in both chambers (Reuters via Devdiscourse). Democrats flipped Senate seats in South Carolina and North Carolina and held Georgia and New Hampshire (Dow Jones via MarketScreener).
  • Governor races also mattered for markets: Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican incumbent Greg Abbott in Texas, and Keisha Lance Bottoms won in Georgia. Moomoo ANZ’s Tapas Strickland said those two states make up about a third of all AI data-centre spending and projects (Reuters via Devdiscourse).
  • Why markets reacted: analysts flagged the risk of tighter oversight of AI and crypto, a harder debt-ceiling fight and legislative gridlock. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Tai Hui noted Democrats appeared unlikely to win the two-thirds supermajority needed to override a presidential veto (Reuters via Devdiscourse).

2) Wall Street on Tuesday: chips rebound, Apple drags the Dow

  • Tuesday 3 November close (CNBC): S&P 500 7,568.92 (+0.36%), snapping a three-day losing run; Nasdaq Composite 25,372.01 (+0.83%); Dow 51,786.72 (−197.26 / −0.38%).
  • Chips led: AMD rose 3.65% to $483.90 before its results, Nvidia gained 2.29% and Micron 2.58%, while Oracle jumped 5.85% and Microsoft 2.74% (Investing.com). Apple fell 1.90% to $331.90 after its weak margin outlook, and Shopify dropped 8.74% (Investing.com).

3) AMD after the bell

  • Third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion (+45% year on year) beat the $13.09 billion LSEG estimate, and adjusted EPS of $2.09 beat $1.95 (CNBC). Data Center revenue hit a record $8.5 billion, up 97%, while Client and Gaming fell 8% to $3.7 billion (AMD; CNBC).
  • AMD guided fourth-quarter revenue to about $17 billion, above the $16.2 billion LSEG average, with gross margin of about 55% versus a 55.3% estimate (CNBC). CEO Lisa Su said she expects server revenue to double year on year in 2027. The stock was up about 8% in extended trading (CNBC).

4) Jobs data, yields, dollar and gold

  • JOLTS: job openings rose 333,000 to 7.523 million in September, well above the roughly 7.1 million expected, and August was revised to 7.190 million. Quits rose to 3.365 million, hires were 5.402 million and layoffs 1.641 million (BLS; CNBC; investingLive).
  • Treasuries: yields rose on Tuesday. The Treasury’s daily par curve put the 10-year at 4.95%, the 2-year at 4.61% and the 30-year at 5.32% (US Treasury). After the election results, the 10-year fell to around 4.90%, its lowest since early September (Dow Jones via MarketScreener). CME FedWatch showed a 79% chance of a Fed hike in December (Reuters via Kitco).
  • Dollar and crypto: the dollar index fell 0.4% to a one-month low of 101.30; bitcoin dropped 1.8% to $76,457.20 (Reuters via Devdiscourse).
  • Gold: spot slipped 0.5% to $3,927.18 on Tuesday afternoon and December futures settled 0.7% lower at $3,940.40, as the dollar and yields firmed (Reuters via Kitco). This morning, with the dollar weaker, spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,947.49 by 04:15 GMT (Reuters via Investing.com).

5) Oil: near a four-week low

  • Tuesday settle: Brent fell $1.17, or 1.12%, to $103.60, its lowest settlement since 7 October, and WTI fell 37 cents to $96.09, as traders hoped US–Iran diplomacy could reduce supply disruptions (CNBC; Dow Jones via Morningstar).
  • Wednesday in Asia: Brent was down 26 cents at $103.34 and WTI 53 cents at $95.56 by 01:57 GMT. API data showed US crude stocks fell 5.27 million barrels last week, against an expected 880,000-barrel build (Reuters via CNBC).
  • Oman crude: the official price for January delivery fell $3.41 to $102.23 a barrel on Tuesday (Oman News Agency via QNA).

6) Gulf equities: Tuesday 3 November

  • TASI 9,876.13 (−6.72 / −0.07%) on turnover of about SAR 3.43 billion (Argaam; Ajel). Al Omran led gainers, up 6.30% to SAR 17.20, followed by Saudi Printing and Packaging, up 5.90% to SAR 45.22 (Marsad; Ajel). Saudi Arabia’s PMI eased to 54.0 from 55.3 (The Edge).
  • Qatar (QE) 9,614.07 (+23.35 / +0.24%), with QR435.69 million traded; 18 stocks rose, 32 fell and three were unchanged (QNA). Qatar’s PMI fell to 46.3 from 47.3 (The Edge).
  • Kuwait All Share 8,430.34 (+83.37 / +1.00%), ending a four-session slide; the Premier Market rose 0.93% and the Main Market 1.35%, on value of about KD66.4 million (KUNA via El Balad; The Edge). Kuwait’s PMI rose to 52.9 from 52.4 (The Edge).
  • Others: Dubai rose 0.05% to 5,810.86 and Abu Dhabi fell 0.29% to 9,462.91, while Bahrain edged up 0.05% to 1,814.66, ending a 14-session losing streak (The Edge). This morning the UAE PMI eased to 54.8 from 55.3, as output prices rose at the fastest pace in the survey’s history (Reuters via Investing.com).

7) Muscat Stock Exchange: Tuesday 3 November

  • MSX 30 at 7,222.44 (−39.6 / −0.55%), a fourth straight decline. Value traded was OMR28.085 million and market capitalisation about OMR38.62 billion (Oman News Agency via Khaligyoun; Marsad).
  • Top gainers: Oman Fisheries +4.7% to 22 baisa, Building Materials Industries +4.4% to 70 baisa and Al Jazeera Services +2.8% to 250 baisa (Oman Daily via Marsad).
  • Top losers: Oman Refreshment −7.5% to OMR1.060, Dhofar International Development −5% to 265 baisa and Gulf International Chemicals −4.1% to 69 baisa (Oman Daily via Marsad).
  • Where the money went: Omantel led value traded with about OMR7.5 million, followed by OQ Base Industries (OMR4.9 million) and OQ Gas Networks (OMR4.7 million). Non-Omani investors were net sellers of about OMR0.5 million (Oman Daily via Marsad).
  • Omani company news: Omantel said it is targeting rising demand for international network capacity from cloud providers and carriers as AI use grows, and is investing in subsea cables, land networks and data centres; it hosted the Middle East Global Carrier Community Meeting in Muscat with its Zain joint venture (Oman Observer). The Financial Services Authority said it is working with the MSX, Muscat Clearing and Depository and brokers to make it easier for foreign investors to trade, as Oman builds its case for a possible FTSE Russell reclassification (Oman Observer).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • The overnight reaction comes before the US open. Results arrived during the Gulf night, so the first moves showed up in US futures, the dollar, Treasuries and Asian stocks. The cash session opens at 18:30 Muscat time, after a full day of data.
  • The AI trade is in the middle of it. AMD’s results show AI demand is still strong, but futures are pricing in political risk to data-centre spending. Many Gulf investors hold these names directly or through US index funds.
  • A weaker dollar and lower yields help explain why gold firmed this morning. Oil near a four-week low affects Gulf budgets and official prices such as Oman crude.

Today’s calendar (Muscat/UAE time, GMT+4)

  • Gulf: regional markets open for Wednesday’s session; the question is whether the MSX 30 can stop a four-day slide and how Gulf markets absorb the US election result.
  • 17:15: ADP private payrolls for October; forecast 67,000 after 90,000 (Investing.com).
  • 17:30: US Treasury quarterly refunding statement (US Treasury) and US trade balance (Investing.com).
  • 18:30 – 01:00: US cash session.
  • 18:45: S&P Global services PMI; forecast 57.9 after 58.8 (Investing.com).
  • 19:00: ISM services PMI; forecast 54.8 after 54.9 (Investing.com).
  • 19:30: EIA weekly oil inventories (Investing.com).
  • Friday 17:30: US jobs report for October; economists expect about 65,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2% (Bloomberg).

Short educational angle: what is the US Treasury’s “quarterly refunding”, and why do bond traders watch it?

Four times a year the US Treasury tells the market how much it plans to borrow and how it will do it. It happens in two steps. On Monday it published its borrowing estimates: $618 billion for October–December and $800 billion for January–March 2027 (US Treasury). Today at 17:30 Muscat time comes the refunding statement, which sets out the mix of debt: how much in short-term bills versus longer notes and bonds, and any change to buyback plans. Traders read the wording closely. The Treasury has said it expects to keep note and bond auction sizes unchanged “for at least the next several quarters”, and any softening of that line can move yields before a single new bond is sold (Newsquawk). The logic is supply and demand. If more long-dated bonds are coming, investors may ask for a higher yield to hold them, which can lift long-term rates, mortgage costs and the discount rate used to value stocks. Less long-term supply can do the opposite. For Gulf traders this matters through the dollar, gold and US equity valuations, and because most Gulf currencies are pegged to the dollar. This is an educational explanation only, not a forecast or a trade recommendation.

Sources

  1. AP — 2026 midterm elections live updates: Democrats win control of Senate. apnews.com
  2. NBC News — Democrats win control of the House and vow to keep Trump in check. nbcnews.com
  3. Reuters via Devdiscourse — Investors poised for gridlock with Trump as Democrats projected to sweep Congress, 4 Nov 2026. devdiscourse.com
  4. Dow Jones via MarketScreener — Asia stocks fall, dollar weakens as Democrats lead U.S. midterms, 4 Nov 2026. marketscreener.com
  5. CNBC — Stock market news for Nov. 3, 2026 (live updates). cnbc.com
  6. Investing.com — ADP jobs report, services PMI, and oil inventories among data due Wednesday (calendar and market data), 3 Nov 2026. investing.com
  7. CNBC — AMD stock jumps 8% on earnings as data center revenue nearly doubles, 3 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  8. AMD — AMD reports third quarter 2026 financial results. ir.amd.com
  9. BLS — Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, September 2026. bls.gov
  10. CNBC — Job openings posted big September gain, 3 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  11. investingLive — JOLTS job openings 7.523M vs 7.100M estimate. investinglive.com
  12. US Treasury — Daily Treasury par yield curve rates. treasury.gov
  13. Reuters via Kitco — Gold edges lower again as dollar, yields strengthen; US midterms in focus, 3 Nov 2026. kitco.com
  14. Reuters via Investing.com — Gold rises as dollar weakens; Democrats score early wins in US midterm elections, 4 Nov 2026. investing.com
  15. CNBC — Crude oil prices fall for second day as market hopes for diplomatic resolution to Iran war, 3 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  16. Dow Jones via Morningstar — Front month ICE Brent crude fell 1.12% to settle at $103.60. morningstar.com
  17. Reuters via CNBC — Oil edges down as investors await U.S. midterm election results, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  18. QNA — Oman crude price falls more than $3, 3 Nov 2026. qna.org.qa
  19. Argaam — TASI falls 0.1% to 9,876 pts, turnover at SAR 3.4B. argaam.com
  20. Ajel — Saudi stock market index closes lower at 9,876 points. ajel.sa
  21. Marsad — Al Omran and Printing & Packaging lead Saudi gainers. marsad.app
  22. QNA — Qatar Stock Exchange closes 0.24% higher, 3 Nov 2026. qna.org.qa
  23. KUNA via El Balad — Boursa Kuwait indices close higher, 3 Nov 2026. elbalad.news
  24. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap 3 November: Kuwait and Bahrain end losing runs. edgeconsultancykw.com
  25. Reuters via Investing.com — UAE non-oil firms raise prices at record pace in October, PMI shows, 4 Nov 2026. investing.com
  26. Oman News Agency via Khaligyoun — Muscat bourse index closes lower at 7,222.44 points, 3 Nov 2026. khaligyoun.com
  27. Oman Daily via Marsad — Muscat bourse index falls 39.6 points on OMR28 million turnover, 3 Nov 2026. marsad.app
  28. Oman Observer — Omantel eyes AI demand for network capacity, 3 Nov 2026. omanobserver.om
  29. Oman Observer — Oman seeks wider access to stock market, 3 Nov 2026. omanobserver.om
  30. US Treasury — Treasury announces marketable borrowing estimates, 2 Nov 2026. treasury.gov
  31. Newsquawk — Quarterly Refunding Primer: eyes on guidance and buyback commentary, 3 Nov 2026. newsquawk.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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