Dow Soars 3% as Democrats Sweep Congress and Oil Sinks 8%; Gulf Markets Rally and Muscat Ends Four-Day Slide - Modern Money Experts

Dow Soars 3% as Democrats Sweep Congress and Oil Sinks 8%; Gulf Markets Rally and Muscat Ends Four-Day Slide

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Dow Soars 3% as Democrats Sweep Congress and Oil Sinks 8%; Gulf Markets Rally and Muscat Ends Four-Day Slide

Takeaway: Wall Street turned Wednesday’s overnight fear into a broad rally. With Democrats winning majorities in both the House and the Senate and President Trump saying he would accept the results, the Dow jumped 1,569.40 points (+3.03%) to 53,356.12, its best day since April 2025; the S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq 1.44% to 25,736.51. Oil did much of the work: after Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican losses, Brent fell 8.67% to $94.62 and WTI 8.29% to $88.12, both their lowest settlements since 31 August. Yields and the dollar fell, and gold futures settled $132.60 higher at $4,073.00. The rally was not about AI: Nvidia, Micron and data-centre names fell, while retailers, banks and Apple led. In the Gulf, TASI rose 1.65% back above 10,000, Qatar jumped 2.81%, Dubai 3.96% and Kuwait 0.56%, and the Muscat MSX 30 rose 0.54% to 7,261.13, ending four straight losses. Today: the Bank of England decision, US jobless claims, and Friday’s payrolls ahead.

What happened

1) Midterms settled: Democrats take both chambers, and markets like the gridlock

  • Democrats won majorities in both the House and the Senate and took key governor races, including Texas (CNBC). Senate seats flipped from Republicans in Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Maine and Texas (CNBC).
  • Trump told The New York Times he was “absolutely willing” to accept the results (CNBC). “There will be gridlock, and historically this is good for the market,” said strategist Jay Woods (CNBC).
  • Where the risk moved: data-centre and AI-infrastructure names. Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged a moratorium on new data centres in the state; Wells Fargo estimates Texas accounts for about 27% of US data-centre gigawatts (CNBC). Compass Point expects Elizabeth Warren to chair the Senate Banking Committee, which it says could stall crypto legislation such as the Clarity Act (CNBC).

2) Wall Street on Wednesday: best Dow day since April 2025

  • Close (CNBC; Xinhua): Dow 53,356.12 (+1,569.40 / +3.03%), back above 53,000 for the first time since 8 September; S&P 500 7,688.62 (+119.70 / +1.58%); Nasdaq 25,736.51 (+364.50 / +1.44%). The Russell 2000 also rose 1.58% to 2,856.95 (Kitco).
  • Sectors: gains were led by consumer discretionary (+4.27%) and financials (+3.46%); energy (−4.77%) and industrials (−1.11%) lagged (Xinhua).
  • Leaders and laggards: Apple rose about 6% to a record $354.33, Walmart added about 3% and Bank of America about 4% (CNBC). Nvidia fell 3.17%, Micron 7.00% and Tesla 3.34% (Investing.com), and CoreWeave also fell (CNBC).

3) After the bell: AppLovin surges, Qualcomm slips

  • AppLovin jumped more than 20% after revenue of $2.18 billion beat the $2.07 billion FactSet estimate and adjusted EBITDA of $1.84 billion beat $1.73 billion (CNBC).
  • Qualcomm fell about 6% as its current-quarter adjusted EPS guide of $2.15–$2.35 straddled the $2.26 estimate (CNBC). Arm dipped about 2% despite adjusted EPS of 52 cents versus 47 cents expected (CNBC).
  • Coherent gained about 7% after adjusted EPS of $2.09 beat the $1.99 estimate; Expedia fell more than 7% on its fourth-quarter outlook and Zillow sank more than 16% after a miss (CNBC).

4) This morning: futures steady, Asian chips hit

  • By about 07:00 Muscat time, Dow futures were up 0.2%, S&P 500 futures 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures flat (CNBC).
  • In early Asian trade Japan’s Topix rose more than 2% and the Nikkei 0.49%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 2.33%. Chip stocks were sold: SK Hynix slumped 9.03%, Samsung Electronics 6.65%, Advantest 11.69% and Tokyo Electron 9.89%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech index jumped more than 5% (CNBC).

5) Follow-up on yesterday’s US calendar

  • ADP: private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, the same as the revised September figure and above the 75,000 Dow Jones estimate; trade, transportation and utilities led with 39,000, while professional and business services lost 27,000 (CNBC; ADP).
  • ISM services: the PMI slipped to 54.5 from 54.9, a 28th month of expansion. New orders fell to 55.9 from 59.8, employment rose to 51.4, prices paid eased to 73.0 and the backlog index hit 58, its highest since July 2022 (ISM). The final S&P Global services PMI was revised down to 56.1 from 57.9 (Kitco).
  • Treasury refunding: the Treasury will sell $125 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt next week ($58 billion, $42 billion and $25 billion, auctioned 9, 10 and 12 November), raising about $28 billion of new cash. It said it anticipates keeping coupon auction sizes unchanged “for the next several quarters” and “continues to evaluate potential future changes”. It also plans to make the 7-year note a quarterly new issue from March 2027 (US Treasury).
  • EIA: US crude stocks fell 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million against an expected 877,000-barrel build; gasoline fell 222,000 barrels and distillates 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million, while refinery use rose to 94.5% (Reuters via EnergyNow).

6) Yields, Fed odds, dollar and gold

  • Treasuries: the 10-year yield fell more than 6 basis points to about 4.884%, the 2-year to 4.573% and the 30-year to 5.273% (CNBC). Analysts said a divided Congress makes bigger deficits harder to pass (CNBC).
  • Fed: CME FedWatch put the chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in December at about 77% after the vote (TokenPost). The Fed meets on 8–9 December (Kitco).
  • Dollar: the dollar weakened after the vote (Kitco), and the dollar index was near 101.27 early on Thursday (Investing.com).
  • Gold: December gold futures settled up $132.60 at $4,073.00 (AP). This morning spot gold was up 1.9% at $4,138.51 by 04:55 GMT, and silver at $53.08 (Investing.com).

7) Oil: biggest one-day drop since April

  • Wednesday settle: Brent fell $8.98, or 8.67%, to $94.62, its lowest close since 31 August, and WTI fell $7.97, or 8.29%, to $88.12, its sharpest one-day loss since 17 April (DTN; CNBC). Traders read the election result as raising pressure on Washington to reach a deal with Iran.
  • Thursday in Asia: Brent was down 97 cents at $93.65 and WTI $1.14 lower at $86.98 by 02:11 GMT, a fourth day of losses. JPMorgan estimates the oil market returned to a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October (Reuters via CNBC).
  • Oman crude: the official price for January delivery fell 92 cents to $101.31 a barrel on Wednesday (Oman News Agency via Asdaa).

8) Gulf equities: Wednesday 4 November

  • TASI 10,038.89 (+162.76 / +1.65%), its highest close in two weeks, on turnover of about SAR 4.48 billion; 253 stocks rose and 28 fell. Al Rajhi Bank gained 2.24% and SNB 2.74%, Aramco 0.31%; Malath Insurance, Gasco and Alamar rose about 10%. Yanbu Cement fell 3.87% after a third-quarter loss (Argaam).
  • Qatar (QE) 9,884.17 (+270.10 / +2.81%) on QR820.13 million of trading, with 48 stocks up, 4 down and 1 unchanged (QNA via El Balad). Qatar National Bank rose 5.3% (Reuters via Business Recorder).
  • Kuwait All Share 8,477.67 (+47.33 / +0.56%) on about KD62.6 million; the Premier Market rose 0.53% to 8,919.02 and the Main Market 0.70% to 8,471.26 (QNA; The Edge).
  • UAE and Bahrain: Dubai jumped 3.96% to 6,040.74 as Emaar Properties rose 4.41% and Emirates NBD 6.09%; Emaar Development gained 4.89% to AED14.58 after Emaar Properties said it intends to offer AED15 a share in cash for the Emaar Development shares it does not own. Abu Dhabi slipped 0.02% to 9,461.41 even as Aldar rose 6.49%. Bahrain rose 0.14% to 1,817.20 (The Edge).

9) Muscat Stock Exchange: Wednesday 4 November

  • MSX 30 at 7,261.13 (+38.7 / +0.54%), ending four straight declines. Value traded was OMR28.058 million, down 0.1%, and market capitalisation rose 0.282% to about OMR38.73 billion (Oman News Agency via Fana News; Oman Daily).
  • Sectors: financials +0.05% and services +0.29%; industrials −0.33% and the Shariah index −0.30% (Oman Daily).
  • Top gainers: Oman Oil Marketing +3.45% to OMR1.500, OQ Base Industries +3.17% to 228 baisa, OQ Gas Networks +2.87% to 215 baisa, Oman Arab Bank +2.80% to 257 baisa and Oman India Fertiliser +2.51% to 204 baisa (Oman Daily).
  • Top losers: Barka Desalination −10% to 153 baisa, Oman United Insurance −5.86% to 305 baisa, Oman Cement −5.20% to 730 baisa, Oman Fisheries −4.55% to 21 baisa and SMN Power −3.85% to 175 baisa (Oman Daily).
  • Where the money went: Omantel led with OMR7.86 million (28% of value), followed by OQ Gas Networks (OMR4.19 million), OQ Base Industries (OMR3.80 million), Bank Muscat (OMR3.52 million) and Sohar International (OMR2.76 million) (Oman Daily). Non-Omani investors were net sellers of about OMR1.14 million (Oman News Agency via Fana News).
  • Omani company news: Energy Oman (formerly Energy Development Oman) plans to regroup its oil, gas and industrial businesses under three intermediate holding companies by the end of 2026, according to the prospectus for its RO50 million sukuk (Oman Observer). Omani fintech mamun raised $3 million in a round led by Phaze Ventures’ Oman Fund, anchored by Future Fund Oman, after facilitating just under $20 million of trade finance since late 2023 (Oman Observer).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Oil is now the main link. An 8% drop in a day eases inflation worries for importers but cuts into revenues and budgets for Gulf exporters, and official prices such as Oman crude follow with a lag.
  • A rotation, not a straight rally. Money moved into banks, retailers and consumer names and out of AI infrastructure and chips. Investors who hold US index funds saw gains, but those concentrated in data-centre names did not.
  • The Fed is still the swing factor. Markets still price a likely December hike, so Friday’s payrolls and next week’s Treasury auctions matter for yields, the dollar and gold.

Today’s calendar (Muscat/UAE time, GMT+4)

  • Gulf: the question is whether Wednesday’s broad gains hold after oil’s slide, and whether the MSX 30 can build on its first gain in five sessions.
  • 16:00: Bank of England decision; economists polled by Reuters expect a 7-2 vote to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75%, its first hike since August 2023 (Reuters via Investing.com).
  • 17:30: US weekly jobless claims and preliminary third-quarter productivity (Kitco).
  • Earnings: ConocoPhillips, Kimberly-Clark and Tapestry before the US open; Airbnb and Akamai after the close (CNBC).
  • 18:30 – 01:00: US cash session.
  • Friday 17:30: US jobs report for October (Kitco).

Short educational angle: why can “gridlock” calm markets, and what are the limits of the post-midterm pattern?

When one party controls the White House and the other controls Congress, big new laws become harder to pass. For investors this can mean fewer sudden changes to taxes, spending and regulation, so companies and markets can plan with more confidence. A divided Congress can also make large new deficits harder to approve, which is one reason Treasury yields fell on Wednesday (CNBC). History is often quoted here. A CNBC analysis found the S&P 500 was higher one year after all 11 midterm elections from 1982 to 2022, with an average gain of 13.7%, and that results left without single-party control averaged about 15% after a year. In the three cases most like this one (1986, 1990 and 2006, when Democrats held both chambers under a Republican president), the index averaged a 0.5% fall on the reaction day but was up 10.9% a year later (CNBC). But a pattern is not a promise. Eleven cases is a small sample, and the same analysis shows the S&P 500 fell 22.1% in the year after the 2000 election as the dotcom bubble burst. Société Générale notes that Fed policy and the earnings cycle matter more than elections (CNBC), and today’s market still faces an oil-driven inflation problem, a Fed that may hike in December and an AI spending cycle now under political pressure. Gridlock also has costs: budget and debt-ceiling standoffs can bring shutdown risk and bouts of volatility. The useful lesson is to separate the headline (“markets like gridlock”) from the drivers that move prices day to day: earnings, rates, oil and the dollar. This is an educational explanation only, not a forecast or a trade recommendation.

Sources

  1. CNBC — Dow soars 1,500 points for best day since April 2025 on clear-cut Democratic win, falling oil: live updates, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  2. Xinhua — U.S. stocks close higher, 5 Nov 2026. news.cn
  3. CNBC — Stock futures are little changed after big rally following Democrats’ decisive midterm wins: live updates, 4–5 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  4. CNBC — Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: COHR, APP, EXPE & more, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  5. CNBC — Stock market after midterm elections: what S&P 500 history shows, 2–3 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  6. CNBC — 10-year Treasury yield slides as traders mull over Democrats’ midterm victories, oil prices drop, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  7. CNBC — Private companies added 86,000 jobs in October, ADP says, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  8. ADP — National Employment Report, October 2026. adpemploymentreport.com
  9. ISM — October 2026 Services PMI Report. ismworld.org
  10. US Treasury — Quarterly Refunding Statement, 4 Nov 2026. treasury.gov
  11. Reuters via EnergyNow — US crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fall, EIA, 4 Nov 2026. energynow.com
  12. TokenPost — Fed rate-hike odds for December rise to 76.9% after election, 4 Nov 2026. tokenpost.com
  13. Kitco — Gold climbs above $4,000, Wall Street rallies as Dems take Congress (PM report), 4 Nov 2026. kitco.com
  14. AP via The Reflector — BC-Gold-Silver futures settlements, 4 Nov 2026. reflector.com
  15. Investing.com — Gold surges past $4,130 as US election sends dollar, Treasury yields tumbling, 5 Nov 2026. investing.com
  16. DTN — Oil sinks 8% after US election; stockpile drop ignored, 4 Nov 2026. dtnpf.com
  17. CNBC — Crude oil prices fall below $90 a barrel as Vance blames GOP election defeat on Iran war, 4 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  18. Reuters via CNBC — Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation, 5 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  19. Oman News Agency via Asdaa — Oman crude price falls 92 cents, 4 Nov 2026. asdaaoman.com
  20. Argaam — TASI rises 1.7% to 10,039 pts, total turnover at SAR 4.5B, 4 Nov 2026. argaam.com
  21. QNA via El Balad — Qatar Stock Exchange index rises at close, 4 Nov 2026. elbalad.news
  22. Reuters via Business Recorder — Dubai leads Gulf gains as investors assess US midterm fallout and Iran standoff, 4 Nov 2026. brecorder.com
  23. QNA — Kuwait Bourse closes higher, 4 Nov 2026. qna.org.qa
  24. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap 4 November: Dubai and Cairo lead eight markets higher. edgeconsultancykw.com
  25. Oman News Agency via Fana News — Muscat bourse index closes 0.54% higher, 4 Nov 2026. fananews.com
  26. Oman Daily — Muscat bourse index gains 38 points; market value at RO38.73 billion, 4 Nov 2026. omandaily.om
  27. Oman Observer — Energy Oman restructuring to create three holding entities, 4 Nov 2026. omanobserver.om
  28. Oman Observer — Oman’s mamun reaches $20m financing milestone, 4 Nov 2026. omanobserver.om
  29. Reuters via Investing.com — Bank of England poised to hike rates for first time in 3 years, 5 Nov 2026. investing.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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