Nasdaq Hits a Record as the 10-Year Yield Reaches Its Highest Since 2002; Brent Slips to $100; Qatar Leads Gulf Gains - Modern Money Experts

Nasdaq Hits a Record as the 10-Year Yield Reaches Its Highest Since 2002; Brent Slips to $100; Qatar Leads Gulf Gains

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Nasdaq Hits a Record as the 10-Year Yield Reaches Its Highest Since 2002 — Brent Slips to $100; Qatar Leads Gulf Gains

Takeaway: Into Tuesday 6 October 2026 Asia/Dubai morning, Monday’s session left two records pointing in opposite directions. The Nasdaq closed at an all-time high (+1.05% to 27,477.31), led by Nvidia and Microsoft, and the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, about 0.3% below its August record. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.310%, its highest since April 2002, as a services survey showed input prices running at their fastest pace since 2022. Brent fell 1.89% to US$100.32 on G7 reserve releases and stronger Middle East exports, while Saudi Aramco unexpectedly cut November prices for Asia. In the Gulf, Qatar jumped 1.08% on much heavier trading, TASI slipped 0.25% as banks weighed, and Kuwait fell 0.59%.

What happened

1) US equities — a Nasdaq record built on the biggest names

  • Monday 5 October 2026 close (Associated Press via WTOP / Reuters via MarketScreener):
  • S&P 500 7,773.95 (+51.23 / +0.66%) — about 0.3% below its 13 August record close
  • Dow 51,267.90 (+90.94 / +0.18%)
  • Nasdaq 27,477.31 (+286.45 / +1.05%) — a record close, its first since 22 September
  • Russell 2000 2,847.14 (+14.24 / +0.50%)
  • Year to date: S&P 500 +13.6%, Nasdaq +18.2%, Dow +6.7%, Russell 2000 +14.7% (AP).
  • Leaders: Nvidia +2.1% to a record close, lifting its market value to about US$5.76 trillion; Microsoft +1.5%; Meta Platforms and Tesla about +2% each. Deal news also helped: PTC jumped 33% after France’s Schneider Electric agreed to buy it in a US$22.6 billion all-cash deal, and RXO rose more than 22% after C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire it for US$5.8 billion (C.H. Robinson fell nearly 11%).
  • Under the surface (Reuters): 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by materials (+1.22%) and communication services (+1.14%); advancers beat decliners 1.7-to-1 in the S&P 500, but the Nasdaq logged 57 new highs against 243 new lows, and volume was light at 16.8 billion shares versus a 20-session average of 17.3 billion.

2) Bonds, data and the Fed — long yields keep climbing

  • The 10-year yield rose 3.4 bps to 5.310% (Tradeweb 3 p.m. close via Dow Jones) — a new 52-week high and the highest since 2 April 2002. It has risen in nine of the past 10 sessions and is up 1.158 percentage points this year. The 30-year rose to about 5.66% (Sharecast), while the 2-year edged up 0.8 bp to 4.831%.
  • Data: the ISM services PMI eased to 54.9 in September from 55.4 (Reuters poll: 55.2), still consistent with solid growth. The detail that mattered for bonds was the prices-paid index, which jumped to 74.0 from 72.6 — its highest since July 2022 — with fuel costs cited twice as often as any other issue. Services employment returned to growth at 50.1 from 47.8, and new orders eased to 59.8 from 60.9 (Reuters).
  • Fed: after September’s 25 bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, traders see about a 24% chance of another hike at the 27–28 October meeting, down from about 70% a week earlier (CME FedWatch via Reuters). The minutes of the 15–16 September meeting are due on Wednesday 7 October at 2 p.m. ET (10 p.m. UAE).
  • Earnings: third-quarter reporting starts next week with the large US banks; analysts on average expect S&P 500 earnings to rise more than 30% year on year, largely on AI-related companies (LSEG data via Reuters).

3) Oil — extra supply pulls Brent back to $100

  • Monday settlement: Brent (December) US$100.32 (−US$1.93 / −1.89%) — its lowest settlement since 22 September and the biggest one-day drop since 29 September (Dow Jones Market Data). WTI (November) US$89.43 (−US$1.68 / −1.84%).
  • Supply side: G7 countries agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, and Middle East crude exports ran above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September despite attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters).
  • Saudi pricing: Aramco unexpectedly cut its November Arab Light price for Asia by US$3 to a US$5 discount to the Oman/Dubai average — the widest since June 2020 — against a Reuters survey that expected an increase of up to US$5. It raised prices for northwest Europe by US$3. Asian refining sources said the cuts appear aimed at compensating buyers for elevated freight costs (Reuters).
  • Risk side: Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted several sites in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco facilities, with no Saudi confirmation, after Yemen’s internationally recognised government launched a military campaign against them on Sunday (Reuters).
  • This morning: Brent was down 4 cents at US$100.28 and WTI down 11 cents at US$89.33 by 00:03 GMT (Reuters).

4) Gulf equities — Monday 5 October 2026

  • QE Index (Qatar) 9,285.05 (+99.62 / +1.08%) (QNA) — the region’s standout. Value traded rose to about QR432.9 million from QR257.4 million on Sunday, across 169.4 million shares and 27,380 trades; 42 companies rose, 8 fell and 4 were unchanged. Market capitalisation rose to about QR562.9 billion. QNB, the Gulf’s largest lender, gained 1.2% (Reuters).
  • TASI 10,479.78 (−26.06 / −0.25%) (Arab News), giving back part of Sunday’s rebound. Value rose to about SR3.61 billion (from SR2.26 billion on Sunday) on 182.25 million shares, and 164 companies advanced against 94 decliners. The index traded between 10,417.43 and 10,500.15 (Argaam). The banks index fell 1.79%: Al Rajhi Bank −1.48% to SR63.10, Saudi National Bank −2.77% to SR38.60 and Banque Saudi Fransi −2.75%. Aramco rose 0.55% to SR25.56 and ACWA Power gained 3.01%. Nomu +0.73% to 21,404.39; MSCI Tadawul 30 −0.48% to 1,409.72.
  • Kuwait All Share 8,638.52 (−51.45 / −0.59%) (QNA); 225.1 million shares worth about KWD63 million via 19,710 deals. Premier Market 9,033.96 (−0.56%); Main Market 8,887.07 (−0.75%); Main 50 9,968.50 (−0.88%). According to Al-Jarida, all indices opened higher before selling picked up in the final hour; 88 stocks fell and 30 rose, and market value dropped about KWD315.9 million to roughly KWD51.73 billion.
  • Elsewhere (Reuters): Dubai +0.1%, Abu Dhabi +0.4%.

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Stocks and bonds are telling different stories: equity investors are leaning on AI leadership and strong earnings expectations, while the bond market keeps demanding more yield. A 10-year above 5.3% raises the discount rate applied to future profits, so the gap between the two markets is worth watching into Wednesday’s Fed minutes.
  • Why long yields rose even as hike odds stayed low: the ISM prices-paid jump to 74.0 points to inflation pressure further down the road, which matters more to long-dated bonds than this month’s meeting.
  • Oil is balancing more barrels against more attacks: G7 releases, recovering exports and a deep Saudi price cut for Asia weigh on prices, while unconfirmed Houthi claims against Saudi sites keep a floor under Brent near US$100.
  • The Gulf split three ways: Qatar’s gain was broad and backed by much higher value traded; TASI had more risers than fallers yet closed lower because heavyweight banks fell; Kuwait’s decline was broad, with selling building late in the session.

Short educational angle

Monday is a good lesson in what an index level actually measures. Most major benchmarks, including the Nasdaq and TASI, are weighted by market value, so a few large companies can decide the result. In New York, Nvidia — now worth about US$5.76 trillion — and Microsoft helped carry the Nasdaq to a record even though the exchange recorded 57 new highs against 243 new lows. In Riyadh the same effect worked in reverse: 164 companies rose and only 94 fell, yet TASI closed lower because large banks such as Al Rajhi and SNB declined. Before reading too much into a headline index move, it helps to check breadth — how many stocks rose versus fell, and how many are making new highs or lows — alongside the index itself.

Sources

  1. Associated Press via WTOP — How major US stock indexes fared Monday 10/5/2026. https://wtop.com/national/2026/10/how-major-us-stock-indexes-fared-monday-10-5-2026/
  2. Reuters via MarketScreener — Nasdaq notches record high close as investors focus on earnings (5 Oct 2026). https://www.marketscreener.com/news/nasdaq-notches-record-high-close-as-investors-focus-on-earnings-ce785dd8da8ff226
  3. Dow Jones via Morningstar — 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.310% (5 Oct 2026). https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610056521/10-year-treasury-yield-rises-to-5310-data-talk
  4. Dow Jones via Morningstar — 2-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.831% (5 Oct 2026). https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610056519/2-year-treasury-yield-rises-to-4831-data-talk
  5. Sharecast via LSE.co.uk — US close: Stocks higher as falling crude offsets rising Treasuries (5 Oct 2026). https://www.lse.co.uk/news/us-close-stocks-higher-as-falling-crude-offsets-rising-treasuries-s0eq9qy1cgxivu5.html
  6. Reuters via KFGO — US services sector cools in September, price pressures building (5 Oct 2026). https://kfgo.com/2026/10/05/us-services-sector-activity-slows-in-september-price-pressures-mount/
  7. Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars and minutes schedule. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
  8. Dow Jones via Morningstar — Front Month ICE Brent Crude Fell 1.89% to Settle at $100.32 (5 Oct 2026). https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202610056411/front-month-ice-brent-crude-fell-189-to-settle-at-10032-data-talk
  9. Reuters via MarketScreener — Oil slips as Middle East crude exports rise, G7 to release stocks (5 Oct 2026). https://www.marketscreener.com/news/oil-slips-as-middle-east-crude-exports-rise-g7-to-release-stocks-ce785ddbdf8bf724
  10. Reuters via EnergyNow — Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cuts November oil prices to Asia to 6-year lows (5 Oct 2026). https://energynow.com/2026/10/saudi-arabia-unexpectedly-cuts-november-oil-prices-to-asia-to-6-year-lows/
  11. Reuters via Business Recorder — Oil prices slip as traders weigh strong Mideast exports against Gulf tensions (6 Oct 2026). https://www.brecorder.com/news/40442853
  12. Reuters via Business Recorder — Most Gulf bourses edge up on energy relief, fading Fed hike odds (5 Oct 2026). https://www.brecorder.com/news/40442738
  13. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi stocks slip as TASI falls 0.25% to close at 10,479 (5 Oct 2026). https://www.arabnews.com/finance/closing-bell-saudi-stocks-slip-as-tasi-falls-025-to-close-at-10479-3004730
  14. Argaam — TASI daily market report (5 Oct 2026). https://www.argaam.com/ar/market-daily-report/3/62247
  15. QNA — Qatar Stock Exchange Index closes higher (5 Oct 2026). https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?date=5/10/2026&id=qatar-stock-exchange-index-closes-higher
  16. QNA — Kuwait Bourse closes lower (5 Oct 2026). https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?date=5/10/2026&id=kuwait-bourse-closes-lower
  17. Al-Jarida — Kuwait Bourse session report (5 Oct 2026). https://www.aljarida.com/article/146551

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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