Hot US Inflation Cements a December Fed Hike as Nvidia Slides Again; Gulf Markets Extend Gains and Muscat Rebounds - Modern Money Experts

Hot US Inflation Cements a December Fed Hike as Nvidia Slides Again; Gulf Markets Extend Gains and Muscat Rebounds

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Hot US Inflation Cements a December Fed Hike as Nvidia Slides Again; Gulf Markets Extend Gains and Muscat Rebounds

Takeaway: US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, and core prices 0.3% against 0.2% — the third straight month of core gains at that pace. Markets moved to fully price a December Fed rate hike, the 2-year Treasury yield jumped about 18 basis points to 4.74% and the 10-year touched 5%. Wall Street ended lower: the S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,520.93, the Nasdaq 0.74% to 25,065.87 and the Dow 0.30% to 52,231.89, with Nvidia down about 5.5% on a second day of fallout from the probe involving its CEO. Brent briefly slipped below $90 for the first time since August before settling at $91.49 (−1.17%), and gold fell about 2%. After the bell, CoreWeave beat revenue forecasts and raised its 2026 outlook. In the Gulf, all seven markets rose on Tuesday: TASI +0.61% to 10,168.10, a three-week high, Qatar +0.69%, Dubai +1.36% — and Muscat recovered, with the MSX 30 up 0.63% to 7,279.41 as non-Omani investors turned net buyers.

What happened

1) US October CPI: hotter than expected, again

  • Headline CPI +0.4% m/m (consensus +0.3%; September +0.6%) and core CPI +0.3% (consensus +0.2%; September +0.3%) (Bureau of Labor Statistics via CNBC; Reuters; Morningstar). Core has now risen 0.3% for three months in a row (Reuters; CBS News).
  • What drove it: food +0.5% (beef +0.9%), energy +0.7% (gasoline +1.0%) and shelter +0.3% — shelter alone accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase (BLS via CNBC; CBS News; Kitco). Used cars fell 1.2% (CNBC).
  • No annual rate this month: the BLS did not publish a year-on-year figure because October 2025 prices were not collected during last year’s government shutdown (Reuters; CNBC; Morningstar). For reference, September’s annual rates were 3.7% headline and 2.6% core (Kitco; Reuters).
  • The Fed angle: before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London that a 50 bp hike “should be considered” in December if inflation came in hot, adding that “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk” (CNBC; Kitco).

2) Wall Street Tuesday: a pause after two up days

  • Close (Reuters; CNBC): Dow 52,231.89 (−157.86 / −0.30%); S&P 500 7,520.93 (−29.01 / −0.38%); Nasdaq Composite 25,065.87 (−187.26 / −0.74%). The Russell 2000 fell 0.68% to 2,821.38 (Portfolio Terminal). The S&P 500 is about 4% below its record; the Nasdaq about 9.6% (CNBC).
  • Nvidia −5.5% (CNBC; Portfolio Terminal: −5.47%), taking its market value to about $4.07 trillion, the lowest since late March (CNBC; NDTV Profit). Pressure came from the board’s investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang and a report by The Information that about $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips reached Chinese firms through a network linked to the woman at the centre of the probe (Benzinga; Reuters). Microsoft fell about 2% (Benzinga; Portfolio Terminal).
  • Anthropic IPO: the AI company is seeking to raise as much as $64.4 billion, with shares expected to price between $70 and $78; its Australian retail offer opened on Wednesday (Reuters; CNBC).
  • After the bell — CoreWeave: third-quarter revenue rose 168% to $3.66 billion, above the $3.55 billion LSEG consensus; the net loss was $709 million. The company raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $13.0–13.3 billion (from $12.4–13.2 billion) and reported a revenue backlog of about $132.5 billion (company release; CNBC). The shares rose as much as about 7% in extended trading (GuruFocus; FX Leaders). CNBC noted the stock had lost about 40% over the past month amid concerns about rising rates and debt-funded AI infrastructure.

3) Rates and the Fed

  • Treasuries: the 2-year yield rose about 18 bp to 4.736%, its biggest one-day gain since April 2025 (Reuters; CNBC; Benzinga). The 10-year traded above 5% before settling near 4.99% (+13 bp) (CNBC; US Treasury par yield 4.98% via Treasury Rate Watch). A soft 10-year auction added to the selling (CNBC).
  • FedWatch: markets now fully price a hike of at least 25 bp at the 8–9 December meeting, up from 84% on Monday, and put the chance of a 50 bp move at roughly 12–14% (Reuters: 11.8%; CNBC: 13.6%) (CME FedWatch).
  • Today: the US bond market is closed for Veterans Day; stocks trade normally (CNBC).

4) Oil and gold

  • Oil: Brent fell as low as $89.16 — below $90 for the first time since August — before settling at $91.49 (−1.17%); WTI settled at $86.04 (−0.93%) (CNBC; Gulf News), after President Trump said the Iran war could end “fairly soon” (CNBC). In Asia on Wednesday Brent was near $92 (NDTV Profit; Gulf News). Regional risk remains: the Houthis again targeted Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, causing a limited fire (OilPrice.com; Gulf News), and the coalition said it intercepted missiles fired at Riyadh (Reuters via Zawya).
  • Gold: December COMEX futures settled 2.05% lower (Dow Jones via Morningstar), and spot gold traded down about 2% near $4,055 an ounce after the CPI release (Kitco). Higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no yield.

5) Wednesday Asia and US futures

  • Asia was mixed early on Wednesday: Japan’s Nikkei and Korea’s Kospi swung around the flat line, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down about 0.7% (CNBC; NDTV Profit). TSMC rose about 2.2% after its board approved up to $1 billion of investments in Anthropic and OpenAI, while SoftBank fell about 3% after a quarterly loss (CNBC).
  • US index futures edged up about 0.2%, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.4% (CNBC).

6) Gulf equities: Tuesday 10 November — all seven markets higher

  • TASI 10,168.10 (+61.38 / +0.61%), its highest close since 19 October, on SAR 4.91 billion, with 232 stocks up and 31 down (Arab News; The Edge; Reuters via Zawya). Al Rajhi Bank gained 2.6% and Saudi National Bank 0.8%, while Saudi Aramco fell 1.9% as oil slipped (Reuters via Zawya). United Wire Factories (Aslak) rose 9.97% and Retal Urban Development 9.96%; Saudi Manpower Solutions fell 5.22% (Arab News).
  • Qatar (QE) 10,177.23 (+69.35 / +0.69%) on QAR 685.5 million, with 38 risers and 12 fallers (QNA; The Edge).
  • Kuwait: All-Share 8,541.18 (+16.68 / +0.20%) on about KD 113.3 million, a jump of roughly 40% in turnover (Al Jarida; Akhbar Alsouq; The Edge). The Main 50 index led with +1.36% (Al Jarida).
  • UAE and Bahrain: DFM 6,170.20 (+1.36%), helped by Emirates NBD (+3.5%) and Aramex (+7.5% after a jump in quarterly profit); ADX 9,555.78 (+0.77%); Bahrain All Share 1,824.34 (+0.15%) (The Edge; Reuters via Zawya).

7) Muscat Stock Exchange: Tuesday 10 November

  • MSX 30 at 7,279.41 (+45.47 / +0.63%), reversing Monday’s fall (U Capital; ONA via Khaligyoun; Al-Amssar). Value traded jumped 50.16% to OMR 41.18 million, volume rose 48.68% to 129.17 million shares, and market capitalisation increased 0.23% to about OMR 38.69 billion (U Capital; Al-Amssar).
  • Sectors: services +1.07% and financials +0.15% led; industrials slipped 0.08% and the Shariah index 0.05% (Al-Amssar; Oman Daily).
  • Foreign flows: non-Omani investors turned net buyers of OMR 1.61 million (buying OMR 5.55 million, selling OMR 3.94 million), led by foreign investors (+OMR 1.82 million) and Arab investors (+OMR 0.16 million), while GCC investors were net sellers (−OMR 0.37 million). Omani investors were net sellers of OMR 1.61 million (U Capital; Oman Daily).
  • Top gainers: Oman Chlorine +8.8% to 160 baisa, United Finance +3.5% to 88 baisa and Al Batinah Power +3.4% to 210 baisa (Oman Daily; Al-Amssar). National Gas (+3.42%) and Bank Muscat (+2.01%) also supported the index (Al-Amssar).
  • Top losers: National Detergent −9.8% to 495 baisa and Raysut Cement −8.3% to 131 baisa (Oman Daily; Al-Amssar); Muscat Thread Mills fell 6.1% to 230 baisa (Oman Daily).
  • Value leaders: Omantel about OMR 8.7 million, OQ Gas Networks OMR 7.2 million and OQ Exploration & Production OMR 6.7 million (Oman Daily; Al-Amssar). OQ Gas Networks also led by volume with 34.41 million shares (Al-Amssar).
  • Omani company news: Raysut Cement has fallen about 15% over the past two sessions (from 155 to 131 baisa) ahead of its one-for-one rights issue — 200 million new shares at 102 baisa, including 2 baisa of issue costs — which opens for subscription on Thursday 12 November and runs to 22 November (Zawya; Mubasher; price data from Oman Daily). Omantel holds an investor session on its nine-month results on 18 November (Mubasher).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • US rates feed straight into the Gulf. With most Gulf currencies pegged to the dollar, a Fed hike tends to lift local interbank rates and borrowing costs. A fully priced December move makes the size of the hike — and the path into 2027 — the next question.
  • Lower oil has two faces. Brent near $90 helps the global inflation picture, but it trims the revenue outlook for exporters. On Tuesday, Gulf equities looked through that, supported by de-escalation hopes, earnings and banks.
  • Muscat’s rebound came with participation. Turnover rose by half and non-Omani investors switched to net buying after several sessions of selling, though company-specific pressure (Raysut Cement, National Detergent) shows the market is still selective.

Today and this week (Muscat/UAE time, GMT+4)

  • Wed 11 Nov: Veterans Day — US bond market closed; US stocks trade normally (18:30–01:00) (CNBC). Anthropic’s Australian retail offer is open until 17 November (CNBC).
  • Thu 12 Nov: US weekly jobless claims 17:30; Cisco and Applied Materials results after the US close. Raysut Cement’s rights subscription opens (to 22 Nov).
  • Fri 13 Nov: US October PPI 17:30 — the next inflation check before the Fed’s 8–9 December meeting.
  • Wed 18 Nov: Omantel nine-month investor session.

Short educational angle: why the 2-year yield jumped more than the 10-year

On Tuesday the 2-year yield rose about 18 bp while the 10-year rose about 13 bp, so the gap between them narrowed — the curve flattened. Because both yields went up, traders call this a “bear flattener”. Why the short end moves more: the 2-year yield mostly reflects where markets expect the Fed’s policy rate to be over the next two years, so an inflation surprise that makes a hike more likely hits it first and hardest. The 10-year also carries longer-term views on growth, inflation and the extra return investors demand for lending for a decade (the term premium). How to read it: a bear flattener usually signals that the market expects tighter policy in the near term; a bear steepener (long yields rising faster) tends to point more to long-term inflation or debt-supply worries. For Gulf readers, the 2-year is also a useful guide to where dollar-linked local rates may head. This is an educational explanation only, not a forecast or a trade recommendation.

Sources

  1. Reuters — Wall St ends lower as hot inflation data, Fed comments heighten rate worries (10 Nov 2026). reuters.com
  2. Reuters — US consumer prices increase strongly for third straight month in October. reuters.com
  3. CNBC — Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, more than expected. cnbc.com
  4. Morningstar — October CPI report shows inflation at a 0.4% monthly rate. morningstar.com
  5. CBS News — Inflation remained elevated in October, CPI report shows. cbsnews.com
  6. Kitco News — Gold prices down 2% on the day as US CPI rises more than expected. kitco.com
  7. CNBC — Stock market today: live updates, 10–11 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  8. Portfolio Terminal — Stock market close, Nov 10, 2026. portfolio-terminal.com
  9. Benzinga — Hot CPI pushes 10-year yield to 5%, Nvidia sinks; Nvidia becomes the Dow’s cheapest stock. benzinga.com · benzinga.com
  10. Reuters — Nvidia heads for $470 billion two-day wipeout as CEO affair fallout deepens. reuters.com
  11. CoreWeave — CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results. investors.coreweave.com
  12. CNBC — CoreWeave beats on revenue and lifts guidance. cnbc.com
  13. GuruFocus — CoreWeave shares jump 7% after Q3 beat. gurufocus.com
  14. FX Leaders — CRWV stock rises after CoreWeave reports Q3 2026 results. fxleaders.com
  15. CNBC — 10-year Treasury yield races back to 5%. cnbc.com
  16. Treasury Rate Watch — Treasury yield curve, Nov 10, 2026. treasuryratewatch.com
  17. CNBC — Brent crude briefly dips below $90 for first time since August. cnbc.com
  18. Gulf News — Oil hits lowest since August as Trump holds off on Iran strikes. gulfnews.com
  19. OilPrice.com — Brent crude falls below $90 for first time since August. oilprice.com
  20. GoldSeek (Dow Jones) — Comex gold settles 2.05% lower. goldseek.com
  21. NDTV Profit — Asian markets today, November 11, 2026. ndtvprofit.com
  22. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi stocks extend gains as Tadawul closes at 3-week high. arabnews.com
  23. Zawya (Reuters) — Gulf stocks close higher as Trump dials back Iran strike talk. zawya.com
  24. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap, 10 November 2026. edgeconsultancykw.com
  25. QNA — QSE index closes higher (10 Nov 2026). qna.org.qa
  26. Al Jarida — Kuwait bourse liquidity jumps 40% to KD 113.3 million. aljarida.com
  27. U Capital — Daily Markets Close, Nov 10 2026. u-capital.net
  28. Khaligyoun (ONA) — Muscat bourse index closes at 7,279.41. khaligyoun.com
  29. Oman Daily — Muscat bourse rises 45.5 points on OMR 41.2 million turnover. omandaily.om
  30. Al-Amssar — Services and financial shares lift the Muscat index. alamssar.com
  31. Zawya — Raysut Cement plans rights issue to restore capital. zawya.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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