Hot October Payrolls Lift Fed-Hike Odds as Nasdaq Rebounds; Gulf Markets Slip and Muscat Eases - Modern Money Experts

Hot October Payrolls Lift Fed-Hike Odds as Nasdaq Rebounds; Gulf Markets Slip and Muscat Eases

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Hot October Payrolls Lift Fed-Hike Odds as Nasdaq Rebounds; Gulf Markets Slip and Muscat Eases

Takeaway: Wall Street ended a bruising week on a mixed note. On Friday the Nasdaq rose 1.09% to 24,579.42 and the S&P 500 0.31% to 7,376.86 as chip stocks bounced, while the Dow slipped 237.33 points (−0.46%) to 51,285.73. For the week the S&P 500 still lost 2.7% and the Nasdaq 3.4% — a fourth straight weekly loss for all three indexes (UPI). The bigger story was the labour market: October payrolls rose 165,000, far above the 59,000 Dow Jones estimate, and unemployment fell to 4.1%. CME FedWatch odds of a December rate hike climbed to about 77% on Friday and close to 80% by Monday (CNBC; Reuters). Brent settled at $98.32 and front-month COMEX gold at $4,064.50 (−0.93%). Asia opened the new week firmly higher. In the Gulf, Sunday was mostly red: TASI −0.78% to 10,016.92, Qatar −0.51%, Kuwait All-Share −0.54%, Bahrain +0.31%, and the Muscat MSX 30 −0.17% to 7,264.23. This week: US CPI on Tuesday at 17:30 Muscat time.

What happened

1) Wall Street Friday: chips bounce, Dow slips, fourth losing week

  • Close (Fox Business; CNBC): Dow 51,285.73 (−237.33 / −0.46%); S&P 500 7,376.86 (+23.13 / +0.31%); Nasdaq Composite 24,579.42 (+264.43 / +1.09%). The Nasdaq 100 gained 1.35% and the Russell 2000 0.89% (The Edge).
  • Chip rebound after Thursday’s rout: the semiconductor index rose 4.2%. AMD jumped 11.04%, Intel 7.71%, Micron 5.12% and Nvidia 2.78%; Tesla added 4.2% (Fox Business). Airbnb rose about 12% after raising its full-year revenue growth forecast, while Atlassian fell 16% after results (Fox Business).
  • Weekly scorecard: S&P 500 −2.7%, Nasdaq −3.4%, Dow −0.9% — the fourth consecutive weekly loss for all three (UPI). Thursday was the biggest day of retail selling since the Covid pandemic, according to Vanda Research (via CNBC).

2) October jobs report: a clear upside surprise

  • Nonfarm payrolls +165,000 versus the Dow Jones estimate of 59,000 (Reuters poll: 65,000). Unemployment 4.1% versus 4.2% expected (BLS via CNBC; Reuters).
  • Revisions were large: August was revised up to 186,000 (+53,000) and September to 60,000 (+31,000) (CNBC).
  • Wages: average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, versus estimates of 0.3% and 2.9%. Participation edged up to 61.9% (CNBC).
  • Breadth: professional and business services added 70,000 jobs, healthcare 42,000, transportation and warehousing 25,000 and manufacturing 19,000 (CNBC).

3) Rates, the dollar and the Fed

  • Treasuries: the 10-year yield closed at 4.86% (+2 bp) and the 2-year at 4.51% (+5 bp), so the front end moved more than the long end (US Treasury par yields via BondStats).
  • Dollar: the dollar index posted its biggest one-day gain in five months and was last near 102.2 (Reuters).
  • FedWatch: the probability of a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December FOMC meeting rose to 76.8% after the report (CNBC) and to nearly 80% by Monday (Reuters). New York Fed President John Williams said growth has been resilient but inflation is too high (Reuters).

4) Oil and gold

  • Oil (Friday settle, CNBC): Brent added 3 cents to $98.32 and WTI 31 cents to $90.83, capping a steep weekly loss on hopes for US–Iran diplomacy. On Monday Brent was near $98.2 after President Trump said fresh attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progress (Reuters).
  • Gold: front-month COMEX gold settled at $4,064.50, down $38.00 (−0.93%) on the day but up 4.60% for the week — its biggest weekly gain since August (Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar). Spot gold was near $4,059.90 (−0.7%) in US trade as the strong payrolls lifted the dollar and yields (CNBC).

5) Monday Asia and US futures: a relief bounce

  • MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan rose 2%, Japan’s Nikkei 3.5% and Korea 1.8%, while Taiwan jumped more than 6% after its steepest weekly drop in two decades (Reuters). S&P 500 e-mini futures were 0.6% higher (Reuters).
  • China’s October producer prices rose 5.7% year on year, the fastest since June 2022, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7% (CNBC).
  • Nvidia headline risk: Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with a businesswoman whom US intelligence agencies describe as a Chinese spy; the company said Huang will continue as CEO (CNBC). Nvidia shares fell about 3.5% on the Blue Ocean overnight venue (Reuters).

6) Gulf equities: Sunday 8 November — mostly lower

  • TASI 10,016.92 (−78.50 / −0.78%) on SAR 2.74 billion; advancers still beat decliners 140 to 119 (Arab News; The Edge). Banks fell 1.57% and telecoms 1.43% (Mubasher). Al Rajhi −1.45%, SNB −1.31%, Aramco −0.31%; Arabian Drilling +5.55% and ACWA Power +2.08% (Argaam). Naseej rose 10% and Middle East Healthcare 9.98%; Filing and Packing Materials fell 6.55% (Arab News). Nomu gained 0.38% to 21,741.82.
  • Qatar (QE) 10,014.83 (−0.51%), ending five straight gains, on QAR 345.4 million (The Edge).
  • Kuwait All-Share 8,500.28 (−0.54%), ending three straight gains, on KD 53.4 million; Gulf Bank −1.48% (The Edge).
  • Bahrain All Share 1,821.32 (+0.31%) was the region’s only riser (Seef Properties +1.57%, Alba +1.53%). The UAE’s latest session was Friday: DFM 6,025.55 (−0.28%) and ADX 9,392.60 (−1.34%) (The Edge).

7) Muscat Stock Exchange: Sunday 8 November

  • MSX 30 at 7,264.23 (−12.18 / −0.17%). Value traded fell 33.87% to OMR 34.20 million and volume 46.32% to 105.18 million shares; market capitalisation was about OMR 38.72 billion (U Capital; Mubasher). The financial sector rose 0.15%, while industrials fell 0.14% and services 0.05% (Mubasher).
  • Foreign flows: non-Omani investors were net sellers of OMR 1.07 million (gross buying OMR 3.76 million, selling OMR 4.83 million), led by GCC investors (−OMR 0.94 million); Omani investors were net buyers of OMR 1.07 million (U Capital).
  • Top gainers: Musandam Power +9.70% to 328 baisa, Building Materials Industry +8.57% to 76 baisa, Oman Fisheries +4.76% to 22 baisa, Oman and Emirates Holding +3.00% to 103 baisa and Oman United Insurance +2.95% to 314 baisa (Mubasher; Oman Daily).
  • Top losers: Sohar Power −7.63% to 242 baisa, Sharqiya Investment Holding −2.91% to 100 baisa, Dhofar Generating −2.60% to 75 baisa, Oman Chlorine −2.00% to 147 baisa and Al Madina Takaful −1.89% to 104 baisa (Mubasher). Note the reversal: Musandam Power had fallen 9.94% and Sohar Power had risen 6.94% on Thursday.
  • Value leaders: Omantel OMR 11.33 million, Sohar International Bank OMR 5.9 million and OQ Gas Networks OMR 4.1 million; Sohar International also led by volume with 35.07 million shares (Oman Daily; Mubasher).
  • Omani company news: net profit of MSX-listed construction companies rose 39% to OMR 51.8 million in the first nine months of 2026. Raysut Cement, back in profit for a fourth straight quarter with nine-month revenue up 20% to more than OMR 76 million, will offer 200 million shares in a rights issue from 12 to 22 November (Times of Oman). Omantel holds an investor session on its nine-month results on Wednesday 18 November at 14:00 (Mubasher).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Good data, mixed reaction. A strong jobs report lowers recession fears but raises the odds of tighter policy. That is why yields and the dollar rose while gold fell on Friday.
  • The AI trade is still fragile. Friday’s chip bounce did not undo a losing week, and the Nvidia headline adds company-specific risk at the start of a week with CoreWeave, Applied Materials and Cisco results.
  • Gulf liquidity is thinner. Lower turnover in Riyadh and Muscat on Sunday, together with continued non-Omani net selling, means single-stock moves can be sharp in both directions — as Musandam Power and Sohar Power showed.

Today and this week (Muscat/UAE time, GMT+4)

  • Mon 9 Nov: US wholesale inventories 19:00; US cash session 18:30–01:00. Earnings include Occidental Petroleum, KKR, Constellation Energy, Take-Two and Skydance (CNBC).
  • Tue 10 Nov: US October CPI 17:30; US 10-year note auction 22:00; Saudi September industrial production (GASTAT).
  • Wed 11 Nov: Veterans Day — US bond market closed, stocks trade normally.
  • Thu 12 Nov: US jobless claims 17:30; existing home sales 19:00; EIA crude inventories 21:00; 30-year bond auction 22:00; Cisco results. Raysut Cement’s rights issue opens.
  • Fri 13 Nov: US October PPI 17:30.

Short educational angle: why a “blowout” jobs report is not automatically good for markets

A payrolls number is not a single verdict. It is a bundle of signals, and markets read each part through the lens of what the central bank might do next. Friday’s report had three parts worth separating. First, the headline: 165,000 jobs against expectations near 60,000. Second, the revisions: August and September together were revised up by 84,000, so the trend was stronger than first thought. Third, wages: hourly pay rose 0.4% on the month, faster than expected. When the Fed is already leaning towards a hike, strength in all three makes a hike more likely. That is what FedWatch captures: it converts fed funds futures prices into implied probabilities for each meeting. It is a market-implied estimate, not a forecast by the Fed, and it can move quickly with each data release. This is why “good news” for the economy can mean higher yields, a firmer dollar and pressure on gold and richly valued shares on the same day. The useful habit is to read the headline, the revisions and wages together, then look at how yields and FedWatch moved, before drawing conclusions. This is an educational explanation only, not a forecast or a trade recommendation.

Sources

  1. CNBC — Jobs report October 2026: U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs. cnbc.com
  2. Reuters via Investing.com — US job growth beats expectations in October. investing.com
  3. Fox Business — Nasdaq rallies as chip stocks recover, 6 Nov 2026. foxbusiness.com
  4. UPI — Nasdaq tech stocks recover but Wall Street posts 4th weekly loss. upi.com
  5. CNBC — Stock market news for Nov. 8, 2026 (futures, Asia, China CPI/PPI, Nvidia). cnbc.com
  6. Reuters via Investing.com — Asian stocks bounce as AI, Mideast jitters recede. investing.com
  7. CNBC — Oil prices tumble for the week, 6 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  8. CNBC — Gold drops as strong U.S. payrolls boost dollar, yields. cnbc.com
  9. Morningstar (Dow Jones Data Talk) — Comex gold ends the week 4.60% higher at $4,064.50. morningstar.com
  10. BondStats — US rates close with the 10-year at 4.86%. bondstats.org
  11. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi main index edges lower to close at 10,016. arabnews.com
  12. Argaam — TASI falls 0.8% to 10,017 pts. argaam.com
  13. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap, 8 November 2026. edgeconsultancykw.com
  14. U Capital — Daily Markets Close, Nov 08 2026. u-capital.net
  15. Oman Daily — Muscat bourse session, 8 Nov 2026. omandaily.om
  16. Times of Oman — Net profit of MSX-listed construction companies rises to OMR51.8mn.
  17. Barchart — Key things to watch this week (CPI, auctions, Veterans Day). barchart.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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