Brent Sinks 7.6% on Iran Diplomacy as TASI Rises and Muscat Slips; Apple Falls After Hours Ahead of the US Midterms and AMD - Modern Money Experts

Brent Sinks 7.6% on Iran Diplomacy as TASI Rises and Muscat Slips; Apple Falls After Hours Ahead of the US Midterms and AMD

مواضيع اخرى

Brent Sinks 7.6% on Iran Diplomacy as TASI Rises and Muscat Slips; Apple Falls After Hours Ahead of the US Midterms and AMD

Takeaway: On Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Muscat/UAE time), oil is the big story after Brent fell 7.63% to $104.77 on Monday as Washington and Tehran both signalled openness to a deal, before steadying near $105 this morning after a reported US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island. On Wall Street the rotation out of tech continued: the Nasdaq lost 1.07% to 25,164.32 and the S&P 500 0.51% to 7,541.40, while the Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98. Apple beat estimates but fell about 3% after hours on a weaker margin outlook, and Palantir also slipped despite a strong quarter. In the Gulf on Monday, TASI rose 0.45% to 9,882.85, Qatar added 0.16% and Dubai gained 0.64%, while Muscat’s MSX 30 fell 0.42% to 7,262.07 and Kuwait lost 0.47%. Today brings the US midterm elections, JOLTS job openings at 19:00 and AMD’s results after the US close.

What happened

1) Wall Street: Dow up, tech down again

  • Monday 2 November close (CNBC; MarketWatch): Dow 51,983.98 (+213.67 / +0.41%), S&P 500 7,541.40 (−38.67 / −0.51%) and Nasdaq Composite 25,164.32 (−272.68 / −1.07%). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had been up as much as 1.1% and 1.4% earlier in the session before tech selling returned (CNBC).
  • Chips and AI names led the losses: Marvell fell almost 13% and Lumentum 18% after Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in a $115 billion deal, and Oracle dropped 8% after announcing plans to sell $10 billion of common stock and $10 billion of bonds to fund its AI build-out (CNBC). AMD fell 7.52% to $466.84 a day before its results (Yahoo Finance), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost about 3.4% (The Herald Business). Bloomberg noted the Nasdaq 100 is now 10% below its peak, a technical correction.
  • “Old economy” stocks carried the Dow: Sherwin-Williams rose almost 6% and Home Depot 3.6%, with Honeywell, 3M and Boeing each up more than 2% (CNBC).

2) Apple and Palantir after the close

  • Apple (fiscal fourth quarter, first report under CEO John Ternus): earnings of $2.10 a share against $1.99 expected and revenue of $114.48 billion against $113.39 billion (LSEG via CNBC); iPhone revenue was $57.58 billion against $56.54 billion, and gross margin 47.9% (CNBC). For the December quarter Apple guided revenue growth of 7%–10% but a gross margin of 45%–46%, below the 46.3% average estimate, citing rising memory-chip costs (CNBC; Reuters). Services growth guidance of 8%–9% was below expectations of 10.7% (Reuters). The shares had closed nearly 2% lower in regular trading and fell about 3% further after hours (CNBC).
  • Palantir reported revenue of $2.31 billion against $2.18 billion expected and adjusted earnings of 44 cents against 41 cents (LSEG via CNBC). US commercial revenue jumped 148% to $984 million and overtook US government revenue for the first time, and full-year revenue guidance was raised to $8.530 billion–$8.534 billion (Palantir). The shares, which fell about 3% in regular trading, dipped about 3% after hours (CNBC).

3) Data, yields and gold

  • The ISM manufacturing index rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, above the 54.5 consensus; the prices index eased 2.7 points to 75.2 and production reached 59.0, its highest since November 2021 (CNBC; ISM). Construction spending fell 1.9% in September, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, against an expected 0.4% rise (CNBC).
  • Treasury yields were mostly lower as cheaper oil eased the inflation outlook: the 10-year fell 3.5 basis points to 4.893% and the 30-year to 5.268%, while the 2-year was little changed at 4.581% (MarketWatch). CME FedWatch showed about a 75% chance of a December rate hike, down from 80% a week earlier (Reuters via CNBC).
  • Gold rebounded from a one-year low: spot rose 1.8% to $3,943.62 an ounce in the afternoon and December futures settled 1.8% higher at $3,969.60; silver climbed 2.9% to $50.54 (Reuters via CNBC). This morning spot gold is 0.6% lower at $3,923.48 (Bloomberg).

4) Oil: the biggest drop since July, then a pause

  • Monday settlement: Brent fell $8.66, or 7.63%, to $104.77 and WTI fell $7.66, or 7.4%, to $96.46, its biggest daily loss since 27 July (CNBC; WAM). President Trump said Iran wants to “make a deal”, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian said Tehran is seeking to resolve problems through dialogue (CNBC). Oil had gained more than 10% in October on the risk of escalation after the midterms (CNBC).
  • Tuesday in Asia: Brent was up 48 cents at $105.25 and WTI up 47 cents at $96.93 by 01:04 GMT (WAM). A US official confirmed to Reuters an earlier Wall Street Journal report that the US carried out strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters via Devdiscourse; CNA).
  • Oman crude: the official price for January delivery fell $9.05 to $105.64 a barrel on Monday; the November-delivery monthly average was $114.07, up $26.23 on October (Oman News Agency).

5) Gulf equities: Monday 2 November

  • TASI 9,882.85 (+44.57 / +0.45%), with 95 stocks up and 164 down on turnover of about SAR 3.55bn; the MSCI Tadawul 30 rose 0.62% to 1,342.31 (Arab News). SABIC rose 2.26% and Aramco 0.69% (The Edge). Malath Insurance led gainers, up 8.64% to SAR 8.80, while Gulf Insurance Group fell 8.44% (Arab News). The parallel market Nomu slipped 0.19% to 21,595.28 (Arab News).
  • Qatar (QE) 9,590.72 (+15.24 / +0.16%), building on Sunday’s 4.6% jump (QNA), with transportation the best sector, up 2.54% (The Edge).
  • Kuwait All-Share 8,346.97 (−39.17 / −0.47%), a fourth straight decline; the Premier Market fell 0.41% to 8,789.99 and the Main Market 0.75% to 8,300.62, on value traded of about KD79.0m (KUNA via QNA; The Edge).
  • Elsewhere: on their first session since Friday, Dubai rose 0.64% to 5,807.83 and Abu Dhabi 0.26%, each ending a three-session slide, while Bahrain eased 0.29% to 1,813.67, its 14th straight decline (The Edge).

6) Muscat Stock Exchange (MSX): Monday 2 November

  • MSX 30 7,262.07 (−30.46 / −0.42%), a third straight decline. Value traded fell 29.7% to OMR 29.84m and market capitalisation eased 0.13% to about OMR 38.78bn (U Capital; QNA). Of 62 securities traded, 15 rose, 32 fell and 15 were unchanged. The Shariah index rose 1% and the industrial index 0.51%, while services fell 0.82% and financials 0.12% (Oman Daily).
  • Top gainers: Oman Cement +8.7% to 750 baisas, Dhofar International Development and Investment +3.7% to 279 baisas, United Finance +3.5% to 88 baisas, Gulf International Chemicals +2.8% to 72 baisas and National Gas +2.6% to 156 baisas (Oman Daily). Oman Cement’s third-quarter profit was about OMR 3.18m against OMR 1.13m a year earlier (Argaam).
  • Top losers: Building Materials Industry −9%, Oman Chlorine −6.2% to 150 baisas, National Finance −5.4% to 207 baisas, Sembcorp Salalah −5% to 255 baisas and Muscat Gases −3.8% to 125 baisas (Oman Daily).
  • Where the money went: Omantel accounted for 22.6% of value traded (about OMR 6.7m), OQ Base Industries 21% (OMR 6.4m) and Bank Muscat 17.6% (OMR 5.2m) (Oman Daily). Non-Omani investors were small net buyers of about OMR 0.15m, led by GCC investors, while Omani investors were net sellers (U Capital).
  • Omani company news: during His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik’s state visit to China, the Oman Investment Authority signed 23 agreements with Chinese institutions, including terms for an $800 million (RO 307.6m) joint fund with China’s Silk Road Fund. The package includes an Omantel memorandum with Huawei on installing Ascend AI processors, a Sohar International memorandum with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank on syndicated financing, an Asyad–JD.com logistics agreement, a RO 161m ten-year mining contract for the Mazoon copper and gold project, and a Nama framework with State Grid for two 500 MW battery storage systems (Oman Observer). Omantel will hold an investor session on its nine-month results on 18 November (MSX via Mubasher).

7) Asia this morning

  • Asian shares fell: MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan was down 1.4% at its lowest since 23 October, South Korea’s Kospi fell as much as 4.1% and Taiwan 3.3%, while Japan was closed for a holiday (Reuters via Devdiscourse). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.5% (Bloomberg).
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, a near two-decade high, in a split 6–3 vote; Australian shares rose 0.3% (Reuters). China’s central bank will raise the foreign-exchange reserve ratio for banks to 6% from 4% from 15 November, and the yuan weakened (Reuters; Bloomberg). S&P 500 futures were about 0.1% lower (Reuters).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • Oil is trading headlines, not quotas: a 7.6% fall on diplomacy and a rebound on a reported strike show how much of the price is a risk premium. That matters for Gulf budgets, for oil-linked stocks such as Aramco, and for official prices like Oman crude.
  • The tech rotation is still running: even good results from Apple and Palantir were sold, while industrial and consumer names rose. AMD tonight is the next test for AI-linked chip stocks that many Gulf investors hold directly or through US index funds.
  • The Gulf is moving on local drivers: Riyadh and Dubai rose while Muscat and Kuwait eased, with Oman’s headlines coming from the China investment agreements rather than oil.

Today’s calendar (Muscat/UAE time, GMT+4)

  • Gulf: regional markets open for Tuesday’s session; watch whether TASI can build on Monday’s gain and whether Muscat can end its three-day slide.
  • 19:00: US JOLTS job openings for September; consensus about 7.13 million after 7.08 million in August (CME Group/Econoday).
  • 18:30–01:00: US cash session (the US is now on standard time).
  • After the US close: AMD third-quarter results; analysts expect earnings of about $1.97 a share on revenue of about $13 billion, with data-centre sales near $8.19 billion (Bloomberg consensus via Yahoo Finance).
  • US midterm elections: voting runs through Tuesday; the first polls close at 6 p.m. ET, which is 03:00 Wednesday Muscat time (The Hill). Polls favour the Democrats to win the House, while the Senate is seen as too close to call; Polymarket and Kalshi put the chance of Democratic Senate control at 77% and 76% (Reuters).
  • Rest of the week: the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement on Wednesday (ING via Reuters), and the October jobs report on Friday at 17:30, where economists expect about 65,000 new jobs with unemployment at 4.2% (Bloomberg).

Short educational angle: how a US midterm election can move markets

Midterms decide who controls Congress, not who is president, so markets mostly watch them for what they mean for fiscal policy: spending, taxes and the size of US borrowing. When the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties (“divided government”), big new laws become harder to pass, and some investors see that predictability as a positive while others worry about budget stand-offs. Markets usually price the expected outcome in advance, so the reaction tends to come from surprises rather than from the result itself; this week prediction markets lean towards a Democratic Senate, but MUFG analysts noted that prediction markets can misprice political tail risks (Reuters). For Gulf-based traders the timing matters: results arrive overnight Muscat time, so the first reaction shows up in US futures, the dollar and Treasuries on Wednesday morning, before the US cash open. History is often quoted — one Union Bancaire Privée analyst noted the S&P 500 was higher six months after every midterm since 1950 (Bloomberg) — but past patterns are not a forecast, and this year oil, the Iran conflict and AI spending may matter more. This is educational framing only, not a forecast or a recommendation on any trade.

Sources

  1. CNBC — Stock market news for Nov. 2, 2026 (live updates). cnbc.com
  2. MarketWatch — U.S. stocks mixed as percolating AI fears offset oil relief, 2 Nov 2026. marketwatch.com
  3. CNBC — Apple Q4 2026 earnings live updates, 2 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  4. Reuters via Investing.com — Apple forecasts margin drop in holiday quarter as rising memory costs bite, 2 Nov 2026. investing.com
  5. CNBC — Palantir reports booming U.S. commercial revenue growth, 2 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  6. Palantir — Palantir reports Q3 2026 results. investors.palantir.com
  7. Yahoo Finance — AMD to report Q3 results following disappointing showing from Intel, 2 Nov 2026. finance.yahoo.com
  8. The Herald Business — Wall Street closes mixed as chip stocks tumble 3%, oil prices plunge 7%. heraldcorp.com
  9. ISM via PR Newswire — Manufacturing PMI at 55.5%; October 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report, 2 Nov 2026. prnewswire.com
  10. Reuters via CNBC — Gold rises from one-year low on softer oil prices; U.S. midterms in focus, 2 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  11. CNBC — Crude oil prices sell off more than 7% on Iran peace talk hopes, 2 Nov 2026. cnbc.com
  12. WAM — Oil prices rise, Brent reaches $105.25 per barrel, 3 Nov 2026. wam.ae
  13. CNA — US strikes Iran’s Qeshm island: report, 3 Nov 2026. channelnewsasia.com
  14. Reuters via Devdiscourse — GLOBAL MARKETS: Asian stocks retreat ahead of US midterms, oil steadies, 3 Nov 2026. devdiscourse.com
  15. Bloomberg via swissinfo — Asian stocks fall on US tech jitters, yuan weakens: Markets Wrap, 3 Nov 2026. swissinfo.ch
  16. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi stock market advances 0.45% to close at 9,883, 2 Nov 2026. arabnews.com
  17. QNA — QSE index closes higher, 2 Nov 2026. qna.org.qa
  18. KUNA via QNA (Fana News) — Kuwait Bourse closes lower, 2 Nov 2026. fananews.com
  19. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap 2 November: UAE return snaps the slide as oil sinks. edgeconsultancykw.com
  20. QNA — Muscat Stock Exchange index closes lower, 2 Nov 2026. qna.org.qa
  21. U Capital — Daily Markets Close, 2 Nov 2026. u-capital.net
  22. Oman Daily — Muscat bourse index closes lower at 7,262 points, 2 Nov 2026. omandaily.om
  23. Argaam — MSX company financial results (quarterly). argaam.com
  24. Oman Observer — Oman, China sign 23 investment deals worth billions, 2 Nov 2026. omanobserver.om
  25. Mubasher — MSX discussion session: Omantel nine-month results, 3 Nov 2026. mubasher.info
  26. Oman News Agency via Nabd — Oman crude price falls $9.05, 2 Nov 2026. nabd.ws
  27. CME Group / Econoday — US: JOLTS consensus. cmegroup.com
  28. The Hill — Election day 2026: when polls close, when results are expected. thehill.com

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

إشترك لتصلك تحليلاتنا

إشترك في قائمتنا البريدية للحصول على أخبار تحليلاتنا بشكل مستمر .

ما هي إهتماماتك ؟

"لن نرسل رسائل غير مرغوب فيها أبدًا! تفضلوا بالاطلاع على سياسة الخصوصية الخاصة بنا لمزيد من المعلومات."