TASI Closes Above 10,000 as the Fed Holds Rates With Two Dissents; Alphabet Slides After Hours While Microsoft Gains on Azure - Modern Money Experts

TASI Closes Above 10,000 as the Fed Holds Rates With Two Dissents; Alphabet Slides After Hours While Microsoft Gains on Azure

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TASI Closes Above 10,000 as the Fed Holds Rates With Two Dissents; Alphabet Slides After Hours While Microsoft Gains on Azure

Takeaway: On Thursday 29 October 2026 (Asia/Dubai), markets are digesting a Fed hold and a split verdict on Big Tech earnings. On Wednesday TASI rose 0.37% to 10,023.47, closing above 10,000 despite a Houthi claim of a strike on the Ras Tanura refinery, while Qatar added 0.69%, Abu Dhabi fell 1.60% and Kuwait’s All-Share slipped 0.69%. The Fed kept its target range at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with two officials preferring a hike. Wall Street closed slightly higher: Dow +0.19% to 52,475.10, S&P 500 +0.28% to 7,743.98, Nasdaq +0.27% to 26,549.85. After the close Alphabet fell about 9% on a revenue miss and negative free cash flow, while Microsoft rose about 2%. Brent settled 1.26% higher at $115.32, then eased to around $114 in Asia on Thursday. US GDP and PCE inflation data are due at 16:30 Asia/Dubai, followed by the ECB at 17:15.

What happened

1) The Fed: a hold, two dissents and an open door to December

  • The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike (Federal Reserve statement).
  • The statement said “economic activity is expanding at a strong pace” and “inflation remains elevated”, adding that “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance” needed to bring inflation back to 2% (Federal Reserve).
  • At his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said he would not prejudge the December decision and pointed to the “information rich interval” before the next meeting (Fed transcript). He said financial conditions have tightened since September’s hike but that he was “unwilling and unable to call them tight” (Fed transcript). He also announced that from 2027 one of the Fed’s eight annual meetings will focus only on strategy, with no rate vote (Fed transcript).
  • After the meeting, the CME FedWatch tool priced about a 78% chance of a December hike, down from 84% before the announcement (Reuters via CNBC).

2) US equities and earnings

  • Wednesday 28 October close (MarketWatch; AP): Dow 52,475.10 (+97.53 / +0.19%), S&P 500 7,743.98 (+21.38 / +0.28%), Nasdaq Composite 26,549.85 (+72.04 / +0.27%). It was a third straight gain for the S&P 500, helped by chipmakers: Micron rose almost 6% and Broadcom more than 2% (CNBC).
  • Alphabet fell about 9% in extended trading (CNBC). Third-quarter revenue of $127.58 billion missed the LSEG estimate of $128.22 billion, search revenue of $63.35 billion was below the $64.96 billion expected, and free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion. The company kept its full-year capital spending forecast at $195 billion to $205 billion (CNBC).
  • Microsoft rose about 2% after hours (CNBC). Fiscal first-quarter revenue of $92.28 billion beat the $90.69 billion estimate, adjusted earnings of $4.89 a share beat $4.73, and Azure revenue grew 48% year on year (CNBC).
  • Other after-hours moves (CNBC): ServiceNow fell about 15% after a slight profit miss, Fortinet dropped 25% on a gross margin shortfall, Chipotle rose more than 5% on better same-store sales and Carvana climbed 10%.

3) Yields, the dollar and gold

  • The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.2 basis points to 5.044% on Wednesday, its biggest gain since 28 September, while the 2-year yield dipped to 4.731% as it fell during Warsh’s press conference (MarketWatch). The dollar ticked down after his comments (MarketWatch). In Asian trade on Thursday the 10-year eased to 4.99% and the 2-year to 4.68% (Bloomberg).
  • Gold futures fell $22.80, or 0.6%, to $4,036.00 an ounce on Wednesday (MarketWatch). On Thursday spot gold slipped 0.7% to $4,037.98 by 04:10 GMT as traders waited for the PCE data (Reuters via CNBC).

4) Oil: higher on Gulf risk, then easing on diplomacy

  • Wednesday settlement (Xinhua; RIM Intelligence): Brent $115.32 (+$1.44 / +1.26%) and WTI $102.78 (+$2.88 / +2.88%), after a Wall Street Journal report that the US told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense military campaign after the midterm elections (Newsquawk). US crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels, against forecasts for a small build (EIA via Reuters).
  • Thursday in Asia: Brent fell $1.22, or 1.1%, to $114.10 and WTI 1.3% to $101.45 by 03:51 GMT, after the Wall Street Journal reported that US Vice President JD Vance had written to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei to revive talks (Reuters via CNA). Risks remain: the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile fired towards the kingdom’s eastern region early on Thursday, and Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claimed Ras Tanura strike (Reuters).

5) Gulf equities: Wednesday 28 October

  • TASI 10,023.47 (+37.02 / +0.37%), a third straight gain, after falling as much as 1.3% in the morning on the Ras Tanura claim (Arab News; The Edge). It was the index’s first close above 10,000 since 19 October (The Edge). Turnover was about SAR 5.22bn, with 208 stocks up and 55 down (Saudi Exchange via Arab News). Saudi National Bank rose 0.7% and Bahri 1.6%, while Mobily fell 1.5% and Aramco eased 0.3% (Reuters). BinDawood rose 10% for a second day to SAR 4.84 (Arab News). The parallel market Nomu fell 1.22% to 21,273.73 (Arab News).
  • Qatar (QE) 9,214.35 (+0.69%), a fourth straight gain, with Qatar Islamic Bank up 2.5% on turnover of about QR507m (Reuters; The Edge).
  • Kuwait All-Share 8,490.40 (−58.83 / −0.69%), ending a three-day winning run; the Premier Market fell 0.85% to 8,939.79 while the Main Market rose 0.13% to 8,449.20. Value traded was about KD98.3m (KUNA via Sada El Balad; The Edge).
  • UAE: Abu Dhabi fell 1.60% to 9,589.95 as Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank dropped about 5% and ADCB 3.4%, while Aldar rose 3.3%. Dubai eased 0.33% to 5,845.01, with Emirates NBD down 1.0% (Reuters; Khaleej Business Insight). Oman: the MSX 30 rose 0.40% to 7,377.07 (Khaleej Business Insight).

6) Asia and futures: Thursday morning

  • South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 2%, giving back part of Wednesday’s 6.6% jump, as Samsung Electronics slid as much as 6.6% after its quarterly results disappointed (Yonhap; Bloomberg). The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell about 0.7% (Bloomberg). Japan’s Nikkei was slightly higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat (CNBC).
  • Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1.3% and S&P 500 futures 0.5% (Bloomberg), while Dow futures rose about 0.3% (CNBC).

Why it matters for Gulf + US-focused Arab traders

  • The Fed bought time, not a change of direction: the hold was expected, but two dissents for a hike and the “inflation remains elevated” line keep December live. With Gulf currencies pegged to the dollar, the US rate path feeds directly into local borrowing costs.
  • TASI’s 10,000 level is now a test of conviction: the index recovered from a morning drop to close above it even as Abu Dhabi fell, but the move came on lower turnover than Tuesday. Oil, the Houthi headlines and the US–Iran diplomacy track are still the main drivers.
  • The AI trade is being judged on returns: Alphabet’s negative free cash flow and Microsoft’s Azure growth drew opposite reactions. Amazon reports tonight, so the market will keep asking whether heavy AI spending is turning into profit.

Today’s calendar and the rest of the week

  • Thursday 29 October: first estimate of US third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation at 16:30 Asia/Dubai; weekly jobless claims; ECB decision at 17:15 Asia/Dubai, expected to hold (The Edge; Bloomberg; CNBC). Caterpillar and Eli Lilly report before the US open; Amazon and Intel after the close (CNBC). Egypt’s central bank is expected to hold rates (Reuters poll).
  • Friday 30 October: Bank of Japan decision, expected to hold (Bloomberg).
  • Sunday 1 November: OPEC+ meeting; Reuters sources said earlier this week the group is likely to keep December output targets unchanged.
  • Tuesday 3 November: US midterm elections (Reuters via Investing.com).
  • Gulf: watch whether TASI can hold above 10,000 and how oil reacts to the diplomacy headlines.

Short educational angle: when short and long yields move in opposite directions

On Wednesday the 2-year Treasury yield edged lower while the 10-year jumped to above 5%. That is called a steepening of the yield curve, and it shows that different parts of the bond market answer different questions. The 2-year yield mostly reflects where traders expect the Fed’s policy rate to be over the next two years, so it reacts strongly to any hint about the next decision; when Warsh declined to commit to a December hike, it slipped. The 10-year yield also carries expectations for long-term inflation and growth, government borrowing needs and the extra return investors demand for holding a bond for longer, known as the term premium. When the long end rises while the short end is steady or falling, it can signal that investors want more compensation for long-term risks rather than expecting faster hikes. A useful habit is to check the 2-year and the 10-year separately after a Fed meeting, rather than treating “yields” as one number. This is educational framing only, not a forecast or a recommendation on any trade.

Sources

  1. Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, 28 Oct 2026. federalreserve.gov
  2. Federal Reserve — Transcript of Chairman Warsh’s press conference, 28 Oct 2026. federalreserve.gov
  3. CNBC — Fed rate decision October 2026 (live updates), 28 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  4. MarketWatch — U.S. stocks up, Treasury yields mixed after Fed hold, 28 Oct 2026. marketwatch.com
  5. AP — How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 10/28/2026. apnews.com
  6. CNBC Investing Club — Fed chairman talks tough on inflation, plus what’s behind Micron’s big rally, 28 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  7. CNBC — Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GOOGL, MSFT, CMG, NOW, 28 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  8. Bloomberg via swissinfo.ch — Tech stocks drop as Alphabet, Samsung disappoint: Markets Wrap, 29 Oct 2026. swissinfo.ch
  9. Yonhap — Seoul stocks down late Thursday morning after weaker-than-expected Samsung earnings, 29 Oct 2026. yna.co.kr
  10. Reuters via CNBC — Gold slips as markets assess Fed signals, await US inflation data, 29 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  11. Xinhua — Crude futures settle higher, 29 Oct 2026. news.cn
  12. RIM Intelligence — NYMEX ICE energy futures review: Oct 28. rim-intelligence.co.jp
  13. Reuters via CNBC — Oil prices fall as peace hopes offset fears of growing Middle East conflict, 29 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
  14. Reuters via Investing.com — Oil prices fall as peace hopes offset fears of growing Middle East conflict, 29 Oct 2026. investing.com
  15. Reuters via Zawya — Gulf equities mixed as Ras Tanura strike unnerves investors, 28 Oct 2026. zawya.com
  16. Arab News — Closing Bell: Saudi stock market rises 0.37% to close above 10,000, 28 Oct 2026. arabnews.com
  17. The Edge — Middle East Market Wrap 28 October: Riyadh closes above 10,000 despite Ras Tanura claim. edgeconsultancykw.com
  18. Khaleej Business Insight — Saudi index closes above 10,000 points as Abu Dhabi falls 1.6% on bank losses, 28 Oct 2026. khaleejbusinessinsight.com
  19. Sada El Balad (KUNA) — Boursa Kuwait closes with mixed indices, 28 Oct 2026. elbalad.news

Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a trading recommendation, or financial advice. Trading and investing involve a substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research and consult a licensed adviser where appropriate. Modern Money Experts (MMEC) is an educational brand.

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